The end of Syria’s war depends on alliances

What the Arabic-language press is saying about how the Syrian conflict will end, featuring Al Hayat and Asharq Al Awsat.

The battle of Aleppo is being seen as decisive in how Syria's conflict will end. Zein Al Rifai / AFP

Just when everyone thought the situation in Syria could not get any worse, rebels began the fight to take Aleppo, still held by the Syrian regime, and suicide bombings hit parts of Syria’s second city.

In the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat, Georges Semaan wrote that “the battle of Aleppo has begun” and predicted the days to follow will be decisive.

“Will it reach its conclusion? Will Aleppo’s fate be the same as that of Idlib and Jisr Al Shaghoor?” he asked. “Their fall to Islamist terrorist factions was a significant development on the field, though it did not benefit the opposition politically,” meaning it did not shake the pillars of the regime ... nor did it benefit the regional players – particularly Turkey – as much as it heightened the fears of both the friends and foes of Damascus.

“They did not like this surge that almost changed the rules of the conflict and the international and regional political game. Everyone expressed keenness that such an operation not be repeated. Therefore, the fuss a few days ago about a decisive battle to liquidate the regime’s presence in Daraa in the south has subsided, as if the green light was never turned on. An advance on the capital from the south, which historically proved to be fatal for the regime, will not be allowed.”

He wrote that “a decision ‘from above’ prevented the necessary momentum that would have led the battle to a breakthrough similar to the one in the north.”

Semaan added: “ This is not the first time external players put a stop to an impulse that would lead them to change their policies.”

He wrote that Turkey has sought to return to the heart of the political scene. “Perhaps president Erdogan staked everything on the Aleppo ‘Trojan horse’ to enter the heart of the main political game. Will he succeed in opening the gates of Aleppo, to see the gates to Washington – and perhaps to Tehran too – open before him?”

Writing in the pan-Arab daily Asharq Al Awsat, Abdel Rahman Al Rashed said Syria’s foreign minister, Waleed Al Moallem, was correct when he told Russian president Vladimir Putin a week ago that Russia can make miracles happen, but that “a coalition between us and Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the US would require a miracle”. He said Mr Putin was also right to say that only such an alliance would topple ISIL.

“The problem with the [approach] adopted by Mr Putin is that it depicts the war in Syria as a simple misunderstanding between neighbours, believing that they can make peace and cooperate in the fight against international terrorism,” he wrote. Mr Putin even identified members for this so-called alliance – Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Jordan.

Al Rashed said he was right to ask Sunni countries to fight Sunni extremists and this showed that the Russian president understood the region’s complicated religious mosaic. In contrast, the Americans are seeking the help of the Iranians.

“Fighting ISIL and religious extremism may last 20 years, like the war against Al Qaeda that began in 1996, or it could last three years. It all depends who is waging the war against terrorism, whether it will be the Assad regime and Iran or Turkey alongside Saudi Arabia and Jordan,” he concluded.

Translated by Carla Mirza