The United States’ proposal to help form an integrated GCC defence system against the threat of Iran’s ballistic missiles is worth pursuing – not in spite of the Iran deal, but because of it.
A deal with Iran that halts any possible nuclear programme and, crucially, brings Iran back into the fold of the Middle East would be beneficial for the Arab Gulf countries and Iran. But there is still no guarantee that Iran won’t act against its own and the region’s interests in the future – which is why the GCC needs to be prepared.
An integrated missile defence system coupled with central command of military assets – instead of each country operating independently – would provide the strongest deterrent against Iranian aggression. Many of the GCC’s most populous cities are along the coast of the Arabian Gulf, making an attack – or several simultaneous attacks – potentially devastating. It is essential that such attacks are rendered impossible. Iran knows that its air force is no match for those of the GCC. But it also knows that its much greater land mass enables it to overwhelm population centres with missiles. A convincing missile defence system would neutralise that advantage.
The geography of Iran means that a genuinely integrated system would give the GCC as much warning as possible of an attack – after all, an Iranian attack directed at Saudi Arabia could conceivably pass through Omani, Emirati or Qatari airspace.
It also provides a path to peace. This was a lesson the world learnt during the Cold War, when the mutual deterrence between the United States and Russia ensured that neither pushed their own policies too far.
The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait 25 years ago, as we argue here, acts as a reminder that serious security risks can come suddenly and unexpectedly – and continue to affect the region for many years to come. During times of uncertainty and in an atmosphere of insecurity, defence cooperation is greatly needed. The GCC should move past its political differences and focus on the serious security threats. The best way to stand against Iran is to stand together.