The news that Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Adel Al Jubeir will arrive in Moscow tomorrow has set off a diplomatic whispering game. Cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia has increased in recent months, leading to speculation that Saudi is seeking to peel away Moscow’s support for Bashar Al Assad and bring a negotiated settlement to Syria’s long-running conflict.
It is no secret that Saudi Arabia is keen to bring the civil war in Syria to a conclusion. Four years of conflict have ravaged the region and brought violence even to the usually safe environs of the GCC. The conflict in Syria, coupled with Iraq’s fragmentation, has allowed ISIL to gain a foothold in the Middle East, and even establish a capital of sorts in Raqqa.
The war must end. The question is, how? It has become clear to Saudi Arabia that there is no military solution. Two years ago, there were reports that Saudi Arabia’s then-intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan had offered Russia major economic incentives to scale back its support for Mr Al Assad. The reports remained rumours – they were never confirmed – and nothing came of it.
But now, perhaps, there is a new mood in Russia. The Kremlin’s behaviour in Ukraine has resulted in a new round of sanctions against Russia and Vladimir Putin has been looking for allies outside Europe. Certainly, there is a new mood in Riyadh. A month ago, the country committed itself to investing up to US$10 billion (Dh36.7bn) in Russia. Such an investment will give the Saudis significant leverage in the Kremlin.
It is unknown what Mr Al Jubeir will say to his counterpart Sergei Lavrov tomorrow. But he should press him for a deal to end Russia’s support for Mr Al Assad. The Syrian opposition and its supporters have been saying for years that Mr Al Assad can play no role in a transition. With him gone, it will be easier to assemble an international coalition to defeat ISIL and facilitate a transfer of power in Damascus. That will not be easy. But with Mr Al Assad in power, it is impossible.
Saudi Arabia appears willing to do what it takes to end the civil war. Moscow must play its part, too.
