The news that Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Adel Al Jubeir will arrive in Moscow tomorrow has set off a diplomatic whispering game. Cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia has increased in recent months, leading to speculation that Saudi is seeking to peel away Moscow’s support for Bashar Al Assad and bring a negotiated settlement to Syria’s long-running conflict.
It is no secret that Saudi Arabia is keen to bring the civil war in Syria to a conclusion. Four years of conflict have ravaged the region and brought violence even to the usually safe environs of the GCC. The conflict in Syria, coupled with Iraq’s fragmentation, has allowed ISIL to gain a foothold in the Middle East, and even establish a capital of sorts in Raqqa.
The war must end. The question is, how? It has become clear to Saudi Arabia that there is no military solution. Two years ago, there were reports that Saudi Arabia’s then-intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan had offered Russia major economic incentives to scale back its support for Mr Al Assad. The reports remained rumours – they were never confirmed – and nothing came of it.
But now, perhaps, there is a new mood in Russia. The Kremlin’s behaviour in Ukraine has resulted in a new round of sanctions against Russia and Vladimir Putin has been looking for allies outside Europe. Certainly, there is a new mood in Riyadh. A month ago, the country committed itself to investing up to US$10 billion (Dh36.7bn) in Russia. Such an investment will give the Saudis significant leverage in the Kremlin.
It is unknown what Mr Al Jubeir will say to his counterpart Sergei Lavrov tomorrow. But he should press him for a deal to end Russia’s support for Mr Al Assad. The Syrian opposition and its supporters have been saying for years that Mr Al Assad can play no role in a transition. With him gone, it will be easier to assemble an international coalition to defeat ISIL and facilitate a transfer of power in Damascus. That will not be easy. But with Mr Al Assad in power, it is impossible.
Saudi Arabia appears willing to do what it takes to end the civil war. Moscow must play its part, too.
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Picture of Joumblatt and Hariri breaking bread sets Twitter alight
Mr Joumblatt’s pessimism regarding the Lebanese political situation didn’t stop him from enjoying a cheerful dinner on Tuesday with several politicians including Mr Hariri.
Caretaker Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury tweeted a picture of the group sitting around a table at a discrete fish restaurant in Beirut’s upscale Sodeco area.
Mr Joumblatt told The National that the fish served at Kelly’s Fish lounge had been very good.
“They really enjoyed their time”, remembers the restaurant owner. “Mr Hariri was taking selfies with everybody”.
Mr Hariri and Mr Joumblatt often have dinner together to discuss recent political developments.
Mr Joumblatt was a close ally of Mr Hariri’s assassinated father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The pair were leading figures in the political grouping against the 15-year Syrian occupation of Lebanon that ended after mass protests in 2005 in the wake of Rafik Hariri’s murder. After the younger Hariri took over his father’s mantle in 2004, the relationship with Mr Joumblatt endured.
However, the pair have not always been so close. In the run-up to the election last year, Messrs Hariri and Joumblatt went months without speaking over an argument regarding the new proportional electoral law to be used for the first time. Mr Joumblatt worried that a proportional system, which Mr Hariri backed, would see the influence of his small sect diminished.
With so much of Lebanese politics agreed in late-night meetings behind closed doors, the media and pundits put significant weight on how regularly, where and with who senior politicians meet.
In the picture, alongside Messrs Khoury and Hariri were Mr Joumbatt and his wife Nora, PSP politician Wael Abou Faour and Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Nazih el Nagari.
The picture of the dinner led to a flurry of excitement on Twitter that it signified an imminent government formation. “God willing, white smoke will rise soon and Walid Beik [a nickname for Walid Joumblatt] will accept to give up the minister of industry”, one user replied to the tweet. “Blessings to you…We would like you to form a cabinet”, wrote another.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether these wishes come true.
