At the end of my ambassadorial term in your country, I can think of no better slogan to epitomise the UAE’s progress than “the sky’s the limit”. What you have achieved is truly phenomenal. In slightly more than a generation, the UAE has skyrocketed from a barely known country to a global brand that stands for stability and prosperity, incessant dynamism and boundless ambitions.
The project to send a probe to Mars for the UAE’s 50th anniversary in 2021 has been dubbed “Hope”. It speaks volumes about this country’s determination, as well as its perception by others, that the UAE can credibly claim to be capable of turning hope into reality only six years after launching such a programme.
Hope is a symbol as well as part of the great transformation, a mega project of moving from an oil-rich to a knowledge-rich economy. In contrast to other countries, the UAE has not been afflicted by the “curse of natural resources”. Instead, it has taken advantage of nature’s gift by creating a vibrant economy and a stable society.
It began early to diversify the economy away from oil as the primary source of revenue – a process driven by the realisation that nothing should be taken for granted. Just like individual fortunes, public wealth can wax and wane if the signs of the times are misread. A key lesson of history is that no lasting prosperity has ever been built on a rentier economy based on resource extraction.
This is the impetus behind the UAE’s embarking on its great transformation. Its essence is captured in the famous line of Giuseppe di Lampedusa’s novel The Leopard: “If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.”
Much easier said than done. Why change a winning team or, for that matter, a winning formula? Thus, it often takes a crisis to rock the status quo. This happened in Germany in the early 2000s when we had massive unemployment and a sagging economy. We heeded the call and launched a painful reform process to regain global competitiveness. Today, Germany is Europe’s economic powerhouse.
Sheikh Zayed sagely noted that “wealth is not money, wealth lies in men”. In their knowledge and creativity, in their diligence and zeal. What economists call “human capital” is the linchpin of sustainable prosperity and the great transformation.
Germany does not have ample natural resources. The vital ingredient of our economic success is human capital. We nurture it through an education system that imparts knowledge while putting equal emphasis on academic and vocational training. Germany benefits from social partnership between employers and employees, and our entrepreneurial culture emphasises efficiency, reliability and long-term thinking. All this translates into “Made in Germany”, created and produced by German companies that are UAE business partners.
Mostly in trading, but, hopefully, more and more in training, too, in order to foster the human capital that the great transformation relies on. The UAE is well-positioned for the transition from a resource-based to a knowledge-based economy. It has already made great strides in this direction; it remains an attractive destination for the many expatriates whose contribution to the UAE’s success has been essential; it enjoys social cohesion and a national identity that provides for unity and the ability to embrace rapid change.
The UAE will need all of this. For there will be change, and not all of it will be positive. If, as Winston Churchill quipped, success means going from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm, the UAE has had a very different kind of success as it hasn’t experienced major failures yet. But a multi-generational project is unlikely to be one-directional. There will be setbacks so that the UAE will have to prove Churchill right.
Some of the change the great transformation will entail might be profound. Thriving economies need an intact and inclusive political and social fabric. Therefore, creating and sustaining a model of prosperity centred on human capital will involve more than economic change.
Take privatisation, Emiratisation and women’s empowerment. Almost 90 per cent of the Emirati workforce is publicly employed. The clear objective is to drastically reduce this by expanding private-sector employment. This is for the sake of freeing up public expenditure, but, equally important, also to encourage attitudinal skills such as persistence, risk-taking and resilience. Together with an increased participation of women, they are vital for the success of the great transformation.
Success cannot be guaranteed. But those who don’t even try have failed already. You, the people of the UAE, have every reason to be optimistic of securing a bright future by taking it into your own hands and brains. Only the sky is your limit.
My wife and I are very grateful for the hospitality and warm-heartedness accorded to us. Auf Wiedersehen, goodbye, ma’salama and best of luck to all of you.
Dr Eckhard Lübkemeier is the departing ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany
