Global and local rivalries are playing out in a Syrian town. Jihadists and Iranian militias are clashing. Tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing for the border.
This is not the battle raging in northern Syria; this is the quiet storm gathering in the south. For nearly four years, southern Syria has been host to a war of attrition between the regime of Bashar Al Assad and rebel forces.
Exhausted regime forces and poorly-equipped rebels have traded punches, pushing back and forth for the control of a few kilometres of the highway to Damascus, neither able to land a decisive blow.
Now, it seems the tide has turned, with the fate of Syria seemingly hanging in the balance just a few kilometres from where the 2011 revolution began.
Should this prove to be the defining battle for Syria, January 26 would be its turning point. On that day, backed by Russian air cover, regime and Iranian forces recaptured the last neighbourhoods of Sheikh Maskin, a key rebel town 20km from the Golan Heights and at a critical junction on the highway from Daraa to Damascus. The regime victory broke a year-long deadlock and gave Mr Al Assad’s forces the upper hand in the battle for the so-called “triangle of death,” a strip of land stretching from the Golan Heights in the west to Daraa in the south and Damascus in the north.
The capture cut off rebel supply lines from Jordan. By controlling Sheikh Maskin and the Daraa-Damascus Highway, the regime could now block supplies to 70 per cent of the 58 brigades operating under the Free Syrian Army’s Southern Front coalition.
The recapture of Sheikh Maiskeen has also reportedly brought Iranian and Hizbollah fighters back to southern Syria and on the doorstep of the Golan Heights. Estimates of their numbers range from several hundred to a few thousand.
Israel has taken notice. On February 18, its military reportedly hit three Syrian military outposts in missile strikes south of Damascus on the Daraa highway. The strikes appeared to be designed to slow the regime’s, and Iran’s, advances in the south.
But the missile strikes pose a troubling prospect and add a new dynamic to the Syrian war.
For years, Israel has watched what happened in Syria and responded only with surgical strikes to what it saw as direct threats. With Russian air strikes ongoing and Hizbollah on the march, the waiting in Tel Aviv may soon be over.
The possible entry of Israel into the Syrian conflict raises some difficult questions. Would the presence of Iranian and Hizbollah fighters on the Golan push Israel to strike harder and more frequently? Would Israel throw its support behind mainstream rebel groups? Or, should the rebels fail or prove unreliable, would Israel send in its own forces?
More difficult questions and rising tensions can be found on Syria’s border with Jordan. While the Aleppo flare-up has driven 70,000 refugees towards the Turkish borders, humanitarian officials say an escalation in the south would lead to an exodus the likes of which have never been seen.
According to the UN, Russian air strikes and regime advances in the south in January drove 50,000 Syrians from their homes. Should regime forces advance further, as many as 500,000 Syrians could move towards Jordan.
The exodus would be a nightmare scenario for Jordan, which is already struggling to host 1.3 million Syrians.
Amid rising fears of ISIL or regime infiltration, Jordan tightened its security procedures on its borders in December, with a backlog of 15,000 Syrians now waiting in the Syrian-Jordanian no-man’s-land to cross. If these 15,000 pose a challenge to Jordan, what would 500,000 do?
A Syrian regime offensive would pose another threat to Jordan.
For nearly three years, several hundred Al Qaeda-linked Al Nusra Front militants have fought alongside mainstream rebels in the south against Mr Al Assad.
By advancing towards the Jordanian border, the Syrian regime and its allies would drive those Al Qaeda militants over into Jordan.
An Al Qaeda influx and an unprecedented refugee crisis may force Jordan to send ground forces to Syria.
Israel and Jordan have so far taken to diplomacy to address their concerns, leaving hope that dialogue will overcome. Days after Sheikh Maskin fell, Jordanian chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Mashal Zaben travelled to Moscow to meet Russian officials. Dore Gold, the Israeli foreign ministry director general, met Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss Russia’s Syria strategy last week. Promises were made. Pledges were reaffirmed.
Moscow assured them that the verbal understanding between Jordan and Russia of a ceasefire in the south remained, Hizbollah would not reach the Golan and Russia would not drive refugees into Jordan.
But the room for mistakes in southern Syria is minuscule.
Should the regime infantry march too close, should Russian air strikes miss their mark, should populations flee to the border, then the war in the south may escalate.
In Syria, all eyes may now be on the north, but their sights are set on the south.
Taylor Luck is a journalist and analyst in Amman
