It’s not just Britain who will lose if it leaves the European Union

Stephen Blackwell looks at the possible implications for the UK's 'global' role if Brixit happens

The UK’s global influence will be diminished if it chooses to disengage from the EU, says Stephen Blackwell. Niklas Halle'n / AFP

With Britain’s referendum on European Union membership only a few days away, opinion polls suggest the vote is too close to call. Aside from the intense debate over the political and economic merits of the leave case, a “Brexit” would also have a significant impact on Britain’s contribution to maintaining international security. Although the legacy of empire and worldwide interests are an integral part of the country’s self-image, the UK’s global influence will be diminished if it chooses to disengage from the EU.

This would be particularly evident in the Middle East. Through trade, diplomacy and military intervention, Britain has been heavily involved in the region since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War. London’s ongoing commitment to the security of the Arabian Gulf is demonstrated by its commitment to build a new naval base in Bahrain, which could provide support to the two new aircraft carriers that will be available for deployment in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere after 2021.

After the failure of the EU to effectively respond to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1991, a Belgian government minister described the Union as “an economic giant, a political dwarf and a military worm”. Much has changed since then, not least due to an active British role in leading military operations and post-conflict stabilisation work. To take one example, the UK and other EU members are helping to stabilise Somalia through anti-piracy operations, training military and police forces, and funds for an African Union peacekeeping force.

More important than providing military aid, London has also exerted effective influence in the region through concerted diplomatic action with its EU partners. In 2003, Britain, France and Germany took the lead in initiating diplomatic contacts to resolve the dispute over the Iranian nuclear programme, a process that was eventually expanded to include the US, Russia and China as the P5+1 powers negotiating with Tehran.

Economic power rather than military threats explain why the European powers were able to play a key role in the deal eventually reached with Iran in 2015. The EU economy is worth approximately $18 trillion (Dh66tn)and constitutes nearly a quarter of the world’s nominal GDP. EU sanctions and Iran’s exclusion from the “Swift” banking system provided significant inducements to the Tehran regime to seek a diplomatic compromise.

It is hard to see Britain exerting the same kind of global diplomatic clout if the country decides to isolate itself from Europe. In the event of a decision to leave, Britain would, of course, continue to contribute to western security cooperation through Nato. But this would be scant compensation, given that military power can only be effective if supported by economic strength along with the acceptance that the international system must be underpinned by agreed rules if conflicts are to be avoided.

The EU has played a leading role in the creation and observance of a range of international initiatives including the International Criminal Court, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Indeed, the very concept of the western alliance assumes a community of states based on the principles of liberalism, rights and the rule of law. However, although ascendant in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse, the western system of values was first undermined by the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and then severely damaged by the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis.

The emergence of a multipolar world has long been forecast, and several emerging powers, seeking dominance in their regions and fearful of what they see as the corrupting influence of liberalism and multilateralism, will hope to see Nato and the EU weaken and fragment. Undermining these alliances is a key strategic objective of the Russian regime led by Vladimir Putin. In the Far East, the Beijing government’s airfield building on disputed islets in the South China Sea has unnerved US allies such as Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan and signals, potentially, a direct challenge to Washington itself.

In view of these emerging challenges, it is no surprise that a host of leaders, including Barack Obama, have expressed dismay at the prospect of Brexit. A British decision to leave the EU would suggest that the western alliance is losing the will to cooperate in promoting its values and protecting its interests. After the unhappy experience of recent interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, increased discord among Nato and EU members could reduce their willingness to cooperate on urgent regional problems including ISIL, the Syrian civil war and the instability in Libya and Yemen.

European Council president Donald Tusk recently warned that Britain’s departure from Europe “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but also western political civilisation in its entirety”.

Brexit would undermine both the EU as one of the pillars of the international system and the notion of a world order based on western values. The likely result will be greater scepticism about the value of multilateralism and an increased emphasis on power as the ultimate arbiter in international affairs, with obvious implications for intensifying regional rivalries and potential future conflicts.

Stephen Blackwell is an inter­national politics and security ­analyst