On June 30, an Afghan soldier was killed in a border clash with Pakistani soldiers. Kabul claimed that Pakistani troops were constructing a fresh post within Afghan territory, while Islamabad maintains its soldiers were repairing an old post when Afghan troops opened fire. Two days later, a Pakistani diplomat was detained in Kandahar for unexplained reasons and Islamabad lodged a protest with Kabul. Relations between the two countries are souring again.
Some weeks ago I explained why the Afghan president was under pressure due to the Taliban offensive in Kunduz – and that the splintering of the Taliban under Mullah Omar could be of no influence in the matter. I again suggested that Jalaluddin Haqqani might be the only one who could influence events in northern Afghanistan.
With Omar’s field commander opposing negotiations recommended by his political adviser, the factionalism among the Taliban is becoming increasingly visible.
But that’s not all. Afghanistan’s president Ashraf Ghani adopted a bold position of letting bygones be bygones with Pakistan. He did so despite strong opposition from his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, and many of his followers.
During the Karzai era, relations between Kabul and Islamabad were strained. Not only are many adherents of Mr Karzai’s policies still in positions of authority but most of them still believe that Mr Ghani erred in his decision to improve relations with Islamabad.
For those Afghans who are convinced that Mr Ghani committed a political blunder in trying to improve relations, what more opportune moment could there be to help him “correct” his course by creating situations that increase misunderstanding and apprehension.
We have the same kind of bigots in Pakistan. People who know what is best for the country to the exclusion of reason. In fact, the very same kind of Pakistani bigots created the “Pakistan haters” in Kabul by continuous assertion that they also knew what is best for Afghanistan.
What is more, over time Pakistan’s image has been sufficiently tarnished for any accusation against it to be credible until proven otherwise.
In the present army chief of Pakistan, however, we have a soldier committed to his duty at all costs and one who is as keen to befriend Kabul as Mr Ghani is to befriend Islamabad.
One demonstration of this fact was the invitation to the Afghan army chief to be the guest of honour at the passing out parade of the military academy. He was the first foreign dignitary to do so.
And, with the bulk of its military fighting domestic enemies and the rest deployed against an increasingly belligerent neighbour on its eastern border, the very last thing Islamabad or the Pakistan military needs is an unfriendly Kabul.
But there is an increasingly large band of silver lining to this cloud. Not only is the Afghan Taliban breaking up, so too is the Pakistani one. This is a sure sign on both sides of the border that their days are numbered.
However, splintered groups are more difficult to eliminate because penetration of one large group by intelligence agents is easier than the penetration of smaller units. On the other hand, it is far more difficult for smaller groups to carry out acts of urban terrorism, while simultaneously engaging in guerrilla warfare.
I am fairly certain that both countries can and will find ways to contain and eliminate the dissident elements.
However, it will be better for them to cooperate in ending this common threat as quickly as possible.
More important, however, is the economic interdependence of the two countries.
My Afghan friends dislike their country being called landlocked. They prefer the term “transit nation”. Well, Afghanistan is a transit nation and it can only benefit from the Chinese economic corridor through Pakistan or Iran. For China, Pakistan remains the preferred route for many reasons.
On the other hand, to access Central Asia, Pakistan’s shortest route lies through Afghanistan. And the much-needed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-(and hopefully) India pipeline runs through Afghanistan. I hope Kabul and Islamabad will be mindful of these facts and not permit misunderstandings to grow.
Brig Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer
