He is no longer a hero, but Erdogan will be president

Few were surprised when Turkey's prime minister declared himself a candidate for the presidency - and few, writes Joseph Dana, will be able to stop him winning it

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Adem Altan / AFP

Few were surprised when Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan officially accepted his AK Party’s nomination to run for the presidency. For months, Mr Erdogan’s desire to become his country’s first directly elected president was an open secret in Turkey. With no opposition from Abdullah Gul, Turkey’s current president, Mr Erdogan is now focusing on unconventional ways of uniting the Turkish electorate to firmly entrench his political power.

“If elected, I will be everyone’s president,” Mr Erdogan told the party faithful while accepting the nomination last week. “It will be a different type of presidency.”

While Mr Erdogan has dominated Turkish politics for more than a decade and is widely considered his country’s most consequential leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey is in a state of internal crisis at a time when the region is undergoing rapid change.

A corruption probe launched last December against Mr Erdogan’s government revealed systemic graft in his ruling AKP. From illegal gold deals with Iran to the management of the Syrian crisis to how urban transformation is unfolding in Istanbul, the investigation revealed widespread mismanagement of Turkey under Mr Erdogan’s leadership. Perceived as an attempt by Fethullah Gulen, a moderate Islamic preacher who lives in self-imposed exile in the US, to bring down the ruling government, the probe raised legitimate questions about the strength of the rule of law in Turkey. Instead of addressing the issues, the prime minister lashed out at those accusing him and even briefly banned YouTube and Twitter in a vain attempt to curtail the stream of revelations.

When Mr Erdogan came into power more than a decade ago, he embarked on a bold plan to transform Turkey’s global position and strengthen the economy. He sought to rebrand Istanbul to reflect the glory of its Ottoman past through a series of mega projects that include a prospective third airport, a new bridge spanning the Bosphorus and an undersea rail link that connects the European and Asian sides of Istanbul. The Turkish economy experienced record growth at a time of global financial crisis. In the realm of foreign policy, Turkey embarked on a “zero problems with neighbours” strategy, which allowed the country to solidify its position as a regional power. Then things started to change.

The corruption probe has chilled investor confidence as protests have become a facet of daily life. Last summer, protesters occupied Istanbul’s Gezi Park, angry about the government’s urban transformation programme. The Gezi Park movement unleashed a wave of fury about the authoritarian tendencies of Mr Erdogan as a ruler and have shown few signs of abating despite heavy police repression.

After a mining disaster in the western Turkish city of Soma in April, Mr Erdogan appeared to further antagonise his nation by refusing to take government responsibility for appalling safety standards in the mining sector. One of the prime minister’s aides was photographed kicking a protester as he was being detained by security forces.

Turkey has also seen its “zero problems” policy suffer a series of setbacks. Given its support of the former Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi, Turkey has seen relations with the new regime in Cairo crumble. In Syria, Turkey’s anti-Assad position has generated little concrete international support. His government has allowed thousands of foreign jihadis to use Turkey as a logistics and transit hub for the war in Syria. This shortsighted response to the Syrian civil war could easily result in blowback attacks if the government attempts to crackdown on the flow of jihadis into Syria from Turkish territory.

On paper, it appears as if the repeated crises plaguing Mr Erdogan’s government could affect his ability to entrench and hold on to political power. That statement couldn’t be further from the truth. The solidification of political power through the careful application of long-term and strategic thinking has been the driving principle of Mr Erdogan’s career. The message from his party at the moment is one of patience. Wait until after his presidential victory for Turkey to hammer out its internal problems and regain economic and regional power. With no serious opposition in the Turkish parliament, Mr Erdogan will strengthen the office of the president and have carte blanche to carry out any political objective he desires.

To achieve his final push for the presidency, Mr Erdogan is extending an olive branch to a former enemy, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK. The AKP recently introduced a bill that stipulates that anyone involved in the reconciliation process with the PKK will be granted immunity from criminal prosecution. Since the PKK is defined as a terrorist organisation, having any connection to it is a violation of the law. This revolutionary move is compounded by increasingly warm economic relations between the Kurdish Regional Government in Northern Iraq and Turkey. Turkey has already bought Kurdish oil and is helping to export it to international markets through the Ceyhan Port on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.

Few would have expected that Mr Erdogan’s presidential campaign would require the help of the Kurds, but that will likely be the case.

There are mutterings that the PKK could split as a result of the peace process and a new, more militant wing of the organisation will emerge and align with other radical groups such as the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front. However, such a move will present little challenge to Erdogan’s presidency. Once he assumes the office of the president, Erdogan will rule Turkey with an iron grip for many years to come.

Joseph Dana is a regular contributor to The National

On Twitter: @ibnezra