The wave of killings in Europe, leading up to the murder on Tuesday of an 86-year-old priest in a French church by two teenagers, marks a new stage in the development of terrorism. Shiraz Maher, an expert at King’s College London, says ISIL has succeeded in “dumbing down” the terrorist enterprise so that almost anyone can join. In the past terrorists were part of a wider conspiracy. They had to assemble materials for a bomb, acquire the expertise to put it together, and then take it out onto the street and explode it.
All of this required a long lead time, and offered many points where the police or intelligence services could be alerted to the plot, either through the number of people involved, the purchase of bomb-making equipment or guns, or the search for the knowledge to make a device. Now ISIL is exhorting its followers to use everyday objects – kitchen knives, car keys or vehicles – as weapons of war that they can kill people with.
These tools cannot create mass casualties as readily as a bomb. But if the attack takes place on an important occasion – such as Bastille Day, when a mentally ill man killed 84 people with a lorry on the promenade in Nice – or at a symbolic location – such as the church where Father Jacques Hamel had his throat slit – the effects can be similar in media terms.
The dumbed-down terrorism seems to have reached its nadir with the church attack, where the two teenage killers set out with knives, fake guns and a fake bomb wrapped in aluminium foil in a backpack. It was as if they were acting out a real terrorism enterprise, like children fulfilling their dreams with what they can find in the dressing up box at home.
Instead of any real expertise, all the would-be assassins need is to make a short video of themselves and send it to their recruiter, who can then publish it on the ISIL website.
This form of terrorism may be little more than a nihilistic fantasy of the psychologically vulnerable or a misconceived act of redemption by a petty criminal. But it remains very hard for the intelligence services to prevent.
In France anger is rising against the judge who allowed one of the two priest killers, Adel Kermiche, who had twice tried to go to Syria, to be free on bail with an electronic tag, against the strong advice of the public prosecutor.
The reaction of the Catholic Church in France has been admirably Christian, with leaders going out of their way not to promote ISIL’s propaganda of a “war of religions” where Islam and Christianity are locked a struggle to the death.
The French Bishops Conference called for a day of fasting today. Speaking on behalf of the conference, Monsignor Olivier Ribadeau Dumas said the response to hatred should be to “live a life of fraternity”. He added: “We want to maintain and develop dialogue between the different people in our country … We need to build a society where people love each other.”
Pope Francis told reporters that “we are at war” but this was not the war of religion that ISIL is hoping to unleash. Continuing his critique of what he has called “unfettered capitalism”, he said the war was one of “interests, for money, resources”.
A darker message came from France’s most famous public intellectual, the philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy. He told the BBC that French society should recognise it has “entered a new world” and should develop a new attitude to public space, which required constant alertness and an Israeli-style “sixth sense for danger”.
It is far from certain that either of these prescriptions – interfaith dialogue or citizens taking responsibility for their own security – will satisfy France.
Talk of civil war in France is now common, even though it is highly unlikely to happen, while opposition politicians have ditched the principle that the government should not be subject to partisan criticism at a time of terrorist attacks.
There is a widespread feeling that president Francois Hollande is not up to the job, a view reinforced by his chaotic personal life, which public opinion is in no mood to forgive at a time of economic stress. The president is receiving advice that if he runs for a second term next year, it could end in humiliation.
There is widespread feeling that politics is broken, and a new president – someone capable of formulating a plan to deal with terrorism – is required. What this would mean in fact is moot. France already has had a state of emergency since November, which has been extended and made more draconian since the Nice promenade attack.
Such powers risk doing ISIL’s work if, as it appears, the target of the 3,600 searches without a warrant has been overwhelmingly innocent Muslim families, which does not increase their trust in the French state.
The first question to answer is this: does the “dumbing down” of the terrorist enterprise indicate that the scourge is in decline? It certainly shows that, as ISIL’s territory shrinks, so does its ability to train its cadres in Raqqa. So the expectation must be for more low-grade attacks, which are so crude that they are below the radar of the intelligence services.
The enmity of the extremism towards France will not go away. There are many reasons for this. First, France’s bombing of ISIL targets in Syria and Iraq and its military action in North and West Africa against the jihadists, and in particular in Libya, where the presence of special forces has just been confirmed. And secondly, the vicious legacy of French colonialism in North Africa, which lives on in France and provides ready recruits to the extremist cause. A president who could address the alienation of Maghreb communities in France – at the same time as all of that country’s other problems – would be a towering figure.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
On Twitter: @aphilps
