A complicated Gulf is emerging. That was the broad takeaway from the opening day of the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi on Monday. Diplomats are tackling how the region’s countries will handle that complexity.
The annual strategic dialogue, jointly organised by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, is taking place in the shadow of a complex geopolitical scene, including the Iran war that has entered its seventh month.
The conflict has exposed the limits of a long-held assumption that the Gulf region’s security and prosperity could be managed through a combination of American security alliances and regional co-operation. Both had created a system of deterrence that has been undermined by Iran’s attacks on all six Gulf countries. The attacks have cost lives, damaged critical infrastructure and disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Every geography in the world has been affected as a consequence.
Tehran’s latest move to “establish a restricted zone” around the waterway, with sanctions threatened against vessels that enter without Iranian co-ordination, is a reminder of how much is still at stake. The vulnerability of one of the world’s most vital energy chokepoints has made the Gulf countries’ search for alternatives an urgent strategic priority.
As Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, said at the forum, the Gulf is being fundamentally reshaped. The region is more complex and uncertain, he pointed out, and its consequences will take time to understand. This is a sobering albeit necessary assessment.
The UAE’s response has been to pursue strategic autonomy, which Dr Gargash explained entails retaining the capacity “to keep our economy growing, our people safe and our decisions our own”. While this isn’t necessarily a rejection of its partnerships with fellow Gulf states, it does amount to a recognition that partnerships – important as they are – cannot substitute for strategic autonomy.
Majed Al Ansari, an adviser to Qatar’s prime minister and foreign ministry spokesman, stated that the biggest threat now is “normalisation” of the current state of “no war, no peace”. The importance of reinstating deterrence is paramount for the region and wider world. He offered a practical starting point: more open borders as a means to deepen co-operation on supply chains. Such measures would strengthen the region’s ability to withstand disruption, Mr Al Ansari said at the forum.
Taken together, the overarching assessment offered in Abu Dhabi on Monday was that fluidity defines the current moment. What the Gulf’s new regional architecture will look like remains to be seen but it is one that requires continuous dialogue and a rebuilding of trust. “Iran remains our neighbour,” Dr Gargash said. “Geography leaves us no alternative to engagement.” But he added that Iran’s firing of thousands of missiles and drones at the UAE and other countries had destroyed bridges built over decades.
“A functional relationship can and eventually must be restored. But rebuilding trust is another matter,” he said, calling it a “mountain” to climb.
