For nearly one month now, the UAE has been caught up in a war it never wanted. More than 2,100 missiles and drones have been fired at the Emirates – more than at any other country in this conflict. It intercepts upwards of 95 per cent of them. It has hardened its critical infrastructure and kept its economy moving. S&P, a ratings agency, has reaffirmed the country’s AA sovereign credit rating. As UAE Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh put it on US television channel Fox News on Wednesday, Iran is “trying to give the global economy a heart attack”. The UAE has endeavoured to ensure it does not succeed in doing so.
Of course, resilience alone is not an exhaustive strategy. What is really needed is a conclusive settlement, not a ceasefire that papers over the underlying threats. US President Donald Trump’s 15-point proposal offers such a framework: offering full sanctions relief in exchange for peacefully addressing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, its missile and drone arsenal, its terror proxies and its weaponisation of international sea lanes. For many of Iran’s neighbours who have had to bear the brunt of its blind rage, this is not a wish list but rather the minimum for regional peace. A deal that leaves any of these threats intact simply defers the next crisis. As Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, said in Washington this week: “Every nation is paying the price of Iran’s aggression.”
Iran’s response has been telling. Rather than engage with the substance, Tehran has offered an incoherent message on whether it is even open to negotiation. Its counterproposal indicates a lack of seriousness in bringing an end to the war, demanding guarantees against future strikes while conceding nothing on the aggression that provoked them. This is not a regime seeking solutions; it is one that believes it can outlast the pressure. As Reem Al Hashimy, Minister of State for International Co-operation, observed in a recent interview, Iran “can’t bully its neighbours” and expect no consequences.
The Emirates has spent decades creating an open, prosperous, pluralistic and globally connected state a mere 60 kilometres or so from Iran’s shores. Though it was never intended as such, evidently in Tehran’s eyes that model is, in itself, a rebuke to its supposedly revolutionary theocracy. UAE Ambassador to the US and Minister of State Yousef Al Otaiba, writing in the Wall Street Journal, framed the point unabashedly: “The UAE is the argument Iran can’t win, the idea it can’t accept.”
Diplomacy remains the UAE’s preferred path. It always has been – Emirati officials were engaged in intensive back-channel efforts right up until hours before the first strike. But it is diplomacy in pursuit of a durable outcome. The current US proposal offers the architecture for that and, in fact, echoes what the UAE and several of its Gulf neighbours have advocated for years, The question is whether Iran has the wisdom to accept it, or whether it will continue to mistake stubbornness for strength.
