In remarks to the IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain on Sunday, Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed, made it clear that Sudan’s people have been let down. “We all made the mistake when the two generals who are fighting the civil war today overthrew the civilian government,” Dr Gargash said. “That was, in my opinion, looking back, a critical mistake. We should have put our foot down, all of us, collectively.”
The fighting that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Gen Mohamed Dagalo, continues to devastate the country. As well as derailing Sudan’s transition to civilian-led government, it has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian and displacement crises. The civil war and its accompanying chaos are also destabilising the country’s neighbours. Meanwhile, this divided and volatile state risks leading to mass displacement and potentially becoming a magnet for regional extremists while its war poses additional threats to Red Sea security.
What the international community is now witnessing is an interminable war with no true winners. Territory is won and lost, each time with appalling violence and civilian suffering. The RSF may feel emboldened by its recent victory in the North Darfur city of El Fasher but reports of atrocities carried out by its paramilitaries only highlight the Pyrrhic nature of such battlefield victories. As former Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok told The National in September: “All this fighting today is just a senseless war. Every day it continues, it destroys the country further. And there is no way that one of them [the rival generals] will have victory.”
A look at Sudan’s post-independence history reveals that military regimes have never provided the stability or prosperity that the country’s people deserve. Two civil wars, military coups and the secession of South Sudan have come with economic hardship and international isolation. Only a truly representative, civilian administration – the like of which was swept away by the generals in 2023 – can begin to put this right.
Historically, Sudan has had a robust civil society and there are plenty of talented and focused Sudanese who can play their part in getting the country back on track. But first, the guns must fall silent. Both sides should freeze the front lines, allow in more aid and make space for diplomacy. This is the only way out, and wise commanders know when there are no more realistic gains – only relative losses – to be had with further grinding warfare.
In his September interview, Mr Hamdok welcomed “more structured and serious” engagement from the US in ending the war. Such engagement will be vital to pushing forward current peace proposals – such as an initial three-month humanitarian truce, followed by a permanent ceasefire and a nine-month transition towards a civilian-led government backed by the Quad of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the US. In this way, the international community can support Sudan to get back on the right path to peace.
