In some ways, the story of modern Syria's external relations is one of dependence. For decades, Damascus relied on a lop-sided relationship with the USSR for arms, infrastructure development as well as energy and trade deals. Isolated from western markets and tied to the rouble zone, vital Syrian projects like the Tabqah Dam were built with Soviet loans and technical expertise. Syrian officers trained at academies in the USSR and a generation of Syrian teachers and bureaucrats were shaped by Soviet training.
Although this relationship began to change with the collapse of communism, the government in Damascus still had a outsized dependency on foreign powers, particularly during Syria’s devastating civil war. The role of Russian and Iranian forces in propping up the state led by Bashar Al Assad was a security-focused reflection of the country’s chronic lack of autonomy.
The sight of Ahmad Al Shara, Syria’s rebel commander turned interim President, mixing with political leaders, financiers and bankers at this week’s Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh is a vivid illustration of how profound the change of the past year has been. But of more significance was what Mr Al Shara said. Revealing that Syria had attracted about $28 billion in investment since the collapse of the Assad government, Mr Al Shara said the country "chose reconstruction through investment, not aid”. Syria’s people, he added, “depend on helping ourselves through investment so that it’s a win-win situation for all. We don’t want Syria to be a burden for anyone. We want to build our country ourselves”.
This is a potentially transformative approach. By leveraging Syria’s relationships with sovereign and private investors to obtain the finance necessary to empower Syrian workers and companies to rebuild their country themselves, Mr Al Shara could break this decades-long cycle of dependence. That would be good for Syrians and for the region.
There is of course an important role for targetted outside support. In May, the World Bank said Syrian debts of $15.5 million had been cleared with Saudi and Qatari help, freeing up Damascus to apply for grants to fund economic development. This is a good example of practical help that is not about propping up an ailing government but clearing the obstacles in its path to national renewal and independence.
However, Syria has to avoid the mistakes of the past. Relationships with its neighbours and investors must be partnerships, not dependence. It also has myriad financial challenges to meet, such as its damaged banking sector, over which questions linger about compliancy risks. There are also critical security problems that must be resolved – on Tuesday, gunmen killed two Druze people on a bus travelling from Damascus, undermining a US-brokered deal to protect the country's Druze minority and improve relations with the central government.
What we have seen this week in Riyadh is the latest step in the rapid evolution of a new Syria that, if it avoids the pitfalls of the past, could be at the heart of a changing Middle East.
