Election campaign posters covering buildings in a working-class neighbourhood in Tripoli in the 2009 election. Anwar Amro / AFP
Election campaign posters covering buildings in a working-class neighbourhood in Tripoli in the 2009 election. Anwar Amro / AFP

Why Hezbollah will be paying close attention to Sunday's elections in Lebanon



On Sunday, Lebanon will hold its first parliamentary elections since 2009. While the forthcoming elections are not expected to bring major changes, the political landscape has been transformed dramatically since the previous ones. Five things in particular will be worth looking out for.

The first is determining whether the current electoral law, based on proportional representation for the first time, will actually allow a significant number of new figures to enter parliament. Traditionally, the Lebanese political classes have adopted election laws that perpetuate their power. The current law is likely to reduce the blocs of most politicians or parties without, however, seriously undercutting their influence.

A factor that will play against lists of less-established candidates is that the cut-off percentage for elimination is regarded as relatively high, although the exact number depends on the number of voters in a district. This will reduce the latitude of such lists to enter parliament and will favour the major politicians and parties who have sizeable electorates in each district.

A second thing to look out for, which derives from the first, is how fragmented parliament is at the end of the elections and what this means for the balance of power in the country. Hezbollah was particularly happy with the proportional law because the party assumed this would do two things – reduce the large parliamentary blocs of its rivals and allow smaller, pro-Syrian parties or candidates to enter parliament as its allies.

This might well happen but more broadly, a fragmented parliament will also make consensus over future policy more difficult and contentious. At a time when the country is going through a major financial and economic crisis and there is a blueprint for economic and sectoral reform, a disjointed parliament might pose a major challenge down the road.

A narrower outcome to examine is how the alliance of Lebanese President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law Gebran Bassil with Prime Minister Saad Hariri will fare. Mr Aoun and Mr Hariri were rivals in the 2009 elections but that changed when Mr Hariri supported Mr Aoun's presidency in 2016. Today the two are allied in several districts and Lebanon's Shia parties, particularly Hezbollah, will be watching closely to see what happens.

The reason is that an alliance between Mr Aoun, a Maronite Christian, and Mr Hariri, a Sunni, could revive the communal partnership that dominated Lebanon for much of the post-independence period, when the Shia were marginalised. Hezbollah is keen to see if this might hinder its own agenda in Lebanon. The party wants to retain latitude to act on Iran’s behalf but if the state, embodied by the Aoun-Hariri alliance, works against this or simply does not support it, the party might be constrained.

For now, both Mr Aoun and Mr Hariri have pursued a conciliatory approach with Hezbollah. Mr Aoun has vowed to maintain his alliance with the party that was established in 2006. Mr Hariri knows that his return to office as prime minister depends on not alienating Hezbollah. However, in the event of a major war between Iran and Israel which encompasses Lebanon, Hezbollah has to be sure that it would not find itself isolated in the aftermath of such a conflict.

__________

More on the election from The National's foreign editor Arthur MacMillan in Beirut:

__________

A fourth thing to watch for is which of the major Maronite Christian candidates emerge from elections in a position that would allow him to come across as a legitimate presidential candidate when Mr Aoun leaves office. Under Lebanon’s unwritten understanding, the president is always a Maronite Christian and is elected by parliament.

Mr Bassil is hoping to enter parliament for the first time and is a major presidential contender, as are Samir Geagea and Suleiman Franjieh. Neither of the latter two is a parliamentary candidate but both have a stake in ensuring their candidates do well, as leverage for a presidential bid. Mr Franjieh is an ally of Syria so his chances of becoming president are real while Mr Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, sees the proportional law as boosting his party’s representation in parliament.

A final thing that will be interesting to determine is whether Hezbollah’s hold over the Shia community is as considerable as is generally assumed. In that regard, the election in the Baalbeck-Hermel district will be a useful barometer. Its large Shia electorate is mainly of tribal background and while it has supported Hezbollah, it has also often acted independently of the party, something much rarer among the Shia of the south.

While there is a Shia majority in the Baalbeck-Hermel district, there is also a significant Sunni and Christian minority. Opposition to Hezbollah will be led by Mr Hariri and Mr Geagea, in collaboration with a Shia notable from the region. While Hezbollah is likely to win most seats, Mr Hariri’s and Mr Geagea’s aim will be to defeat one candidate in particular, namely Jamil Al Sayyed, a bitter enemy of both men. He is backed by Syria and was reportedly placed on Hezbollah’s list at Syria’s request.

If Mr Al Sayyed fails to win, losing to a Shia on the Hariri and Geagea list, this would be humiliating to Hezbollah. It would mean the party failed to fulfil its commitment to Syria against a Shia challenge in an area the party considered a stronghold. It would not change much but it would show that Hezbollah cannot take its community for granted, at a time when its regional adventures are causing uneasiness at home.

Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Points classification after Stage 4

1. Arnaud Demare (France / FDJ) 124

2. Marcel Kittel (Germany / Quick-Step) 81

3. Michael Matthews (Australia / Sunweb) 66

4. Andre Greipel (Germany / Lotto) 63

5. Alexander Kristoff (Norway / Katusha) 43

Company%20profile
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LA LIGA FIXTURES

Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)

Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)

Friday

Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)

Valencia v Levante (midnight)

Saturday

Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)

Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)

Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)

Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)

Sunday

Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)

Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)

Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed 

MATCH INFO

Mainz 0

RB Leipzig 5 (Werner 11', 48', 75', Poulsen 23', Sabitzer 36')

Man of the Match: Timo Werner (RB Leipzig)

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Company%20Profile
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Company Profile

Founders: Tamara Hachem and Yazid Erman
Based: Dubai
Launched: September 2019
Sector: health technology
Stage: seed
Investors: Oman Technology Fund, angel investor and grants from Sharjah's Sheraa and Ma'an Abu Dhabi

PROFILE OF SWVL

Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

Size: 450 employees

Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

Tottenham's 10 biggest transfers (according to transfermarkt.com):

1). Moussa Sissokho - Newcastle United - £30 million (Dh143m): Flop

2). Roberto Soldado - Valencia -  £25m: Flop

3). Erik Lamela - Roma -  £25m: Jury still out

4). Son Heung-min - Bayer Leverkusen -  £25m: Success

5). Darren Bent - Charlton Athletic -  £21m: Flop

6). Vincent Janssen - AZ Alkmaar -  £18m: Flop

7). David Bentley - Blackburn Rovers -  £18m: Flop

8). Luka Modric - Dynamo Zagreb -  £17m: Success

9). Paulinho - Corinthians -  £16m: Flop

10). Mousa Dembele - Fulham -  £16m: Success

AT%20A%20GLANCE
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The Sky Is Pink

Director: Shonali Bose

Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf

Three stars

SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD%204
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The 10 Questions
  • Is there a God?
  • How did it all begin?
  • What is inside a black hole?
  • Can we predict the future?
  • Is time travel possible?
  • Will we survive on Earth?
  • Is there other intelligent life in the universe?
  • Should we colonise space?
  • Will artificial intelligence outsmart us?
  • How do we shape the future?
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Sweet%20Tooth
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJim%20Mickle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristian%20Convery%2C%20Nonso%20Anozie%2C%20Adeel%20Akhtar%2C%20Stefania%20LaVie%20Owen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Jigra
Director: Vasan Bala
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Rated: 3.5/5
Company profile

Company: Rent Your Wardrobe 

Date started: May 2021 

Founder: Mamta Arora 

Based: Dubai 

Sector: Clothes rental subscription 

Stage: Bootstrapped, self-funded 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

EA Sports FC 25
UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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COMPANY PROFILE

Company: Bidzi

● Started: 2024

● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid

● Based: Dubai, UAE

● Industry: M&A

● Funding size: Bootstrapped

● No of employees: Nine