Since its earliest days in late 2002, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government of Turkey has been opportunistic.
At first, it used the country’s EU ambitions to barge aside the hostile elite of Ataturk’s republic by promoting Brussels-friendly reforms and democratic standards. But when the going got rough, Mr Erdogan effectively abandoned the EU accession process and set about entrenching his own form of statecraft.
What the opportunism long obscured was that Mr Erdogan is a politician driven by ideological considerations. As time has gone on and Mr Erdogan has grown more set in his ways, the implications have become increasingly clear.
President Emmanuel Macron provided a stark readout of Mr Erdogan earlier this week. Speaking to Paris Match, a French weekly, Mr Macron discussed how much effort he has expended engaging with his Turkish counterpart. In the end, he hinted, there was a basic fruitlessness to the talking. Europe faces from Mr Erdogan a destabilising expansionist policy that mixes nationalist and Islamist tenets.
It is not the first time Mr Macron has clashed with Turkey's President in recent months. He has accused the Turkish government of holding "criminal responsibility" for its intervention in Libya, where it has sent thousands of extremist fighters drawn from the Syrian battlefield. Critical of its "dangerous game", Mr Macron also accused Ankara of violating Nato rules of engagement after a clash between a French frigate and a Turkish naval vessel during a suspected arms shipment to Libya.
None of this is likely to push Mr Erdogan off his chosen course, especially after he announced the surprise discovery of a massive natural gas field in the Black Sea on Friday.
With the unflinching but canny resolve of an ideologue, Mr Erdogan has shown his colours in the camp of the Muslim Brotherhood. As one research report from Washington detailed last week, he has offered a haven to as many as 20,000 Egyptians tied to the Muslim Brotherhood since 2013. On August 13, he was to be seen making the Muslim Brotherhood hand salute to the faithful of his ruling party, the AKP, at a meeting in Ankara.
Opportunities have come thick and fast on this path. Turkey's Libyan alliance with factions in Misurata has been sealed on Muslim Brotherhood affinities.
That has pitched the entire Mediterranean basin into a new era of instability. The current situation goes a long way to explaining why Mr Macron is so exercised. In his Paris Match interview he described France as a Mediterranean power.
What Europe as a whole is confronted with is a Turkish effort to carve up the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara has already signed a memorandum of understanding with the Tripoli authorities to establish an exculsive economic zone.
The resulting dotted lines on the map run from the Libyan coast to Turkey, taking in Crete and the Dodecanese Islands. The idea behind the move goes far beyond demonstrating an alliance between Tripoli and Ankara. It attempts to stymie rivals to Turkey’s plans to develop a Mediterranean natural gas pipeline. A not unrelated development has seen Turkish exploration vessels move into the waters around Cyprus.
What Europe as a whole is confronted with is a Turkish effort to carve up the Eastern Mediterranean
The EU has sanctioned Turkey for unauthorised drilling, but to the chagrin of Mr Macron plus the governments of Greece and Cyprus, the bloc seems disinclined to do any more. Germany has even risked disagreement with France in its diplomatic offensives in the Mediterranean and Libya.
Greece has been left particularly targeted by Mr Erdogan. The latest encroachments raise conflicting issues about Turkey’s territorial waters and the exclusive economic zones that derive from the fact that Greek islands like Kastellorizo lie so close to the Turkish mainland. But international laws and treaties are clear. There is, in fact, some scope for mediation between Turkey and Greece on some of the issues.
Mr Erdogan is not pursuing talks, but instead engaged in jockeying on the high seas. After another clash at sea – this time between Kemal Reis, a Turkish frigate, and Limnos, a Greek one – on August 12, Mr Erdogan issued a warning to Athens.
"If this goes on we will retaliate," he said. Students of history noted that Kemal Reis was a 15th-century Ottoman admiral who fought the Venetian fleet. The exploration vessel the frigate was protecting was the Oruc Reis, named after an Ottoman admiral who became governor of Algiers.
At this rate of deterioration and with only France seeming to appreciate the stakes in the region, it may be reasonable to ask how long other Turkish-Greek territorial disputes that were previously resolved will remain so.
In making power plays, Mr Erdogan is detracting attention at home from the slumping lira and myriad economic problems. To view his current battles on all fronts through that prism is to see the veteran Turkish leader as a political opportunist.
It is much more valuable to witness this as the strategising of an ideologue – one with an agenda stretching far beyond his own country’s exclusive concerns.
Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Cofe
Year started: 2018
Based: UAE
Employees: 80-100
Amount raised: $13m
Investors: KISP ventures, Cedar Mundi, Towell Holding International, Takamul Capital, Dividend Gate Capital, Nizar AlNusif Sons Holding, Arab Investment Company and Al Imtiaz Investment Group
Gifts exchanged
- King Charles - replica of President Eisenhower Sword
- Queen Camilla - Tiffany & Co vintage 18-carat gold, diamond and ruby flower brooch
- Donald Trump - hand-bound leather book with Declaration of Independence
- Melania Trump - personalised Anya Hindmarch handbag
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
FIXTURES
All games 6pm UAE on Sunday:
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa
RACE CARD
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
The years Ramadan fell in May
Results
5pm: Reem Island – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Farasah, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Musabah Al Muhairi
5.30pm: Sir Baniyas Island – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: SSR Ghazwan, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Astral Del Sol, Sean Kirrane, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6.30pm: Al Maryah Island – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Toumadher, Dane O’Neill, Jaber Bittar
7pm: Yas Island – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Mukhrej, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Saadiyat Island – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,400m; Winner: Celestial Spheres, Gary Sanchez, Ismail Mohammed
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
More on Quran memorisation:
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
