Donald Trump began his political career by railing against foreigners and migrants, denouncing Mexicans as “rapists” and Muslims as “terrorists” and vowing to "fix" the “broken borders” of the US.
But after two years of Mr Trump's government, with the US facing an unprecedented crisis at its southern border, one might conclude his handling of the issue has been disastrous.
This year the US is on track to receive more than one million migrants, mostly from Central America, a huge number by any standards and far more than the system can cope with. These are largely families with children, surrendering voluntarily to border patrol officers at the earliest opportunity and applying for asylum.
Still, you’d be mistaken to conclude Mr Trump is a complete failure on his signature campaign issue.
To the contrary, his near-singlehanded creation of an undeniably out-of-control predicament isn't the result of incompetence or idiocy, as his detractors suggest.
While Mr Trump simply does not do policy and governance, he is a proven master at demagogic politics.
The US president is, in fact, the primary beneficiary of this chaos, which is why he has worked so hard to create it.
In the 2016 primaries, he stood out from the large pack of credible, mainstream Republicans, mainly because of his hostility to foreigners in general, and migrants in particular.
He was plainly betting that he could win by stoking the racial anxieties of white Americans, given the demographic and cultural transformation of the US which, according to national census predictions, will mean white people will no longer be a majority in the US by 2045 for the first time in the country's history.
Mr Trump attacked immigration to exploit such fears and suggest he would preserve and defend the traditional white, Christian, communal power and privilege that many Americans think is under attack.
He was not subtle about this. And he clearly believes such messaging is primarily how he was able to win the White House, despite losing to Hillary Clinton by nearly three million votes.
Mr Trump didn't bother asking Congress to fund his border wall project when his party controlled the legislature for the first two years of his presidency. As soon as Democrats had the power to block him, the money to fund it suddenly became a pressing issue
After the dreadful drubbing the Republicans took in the midterm elections in November last year, any ideas Mr Trump might have had about running on any other issue in 2020 have clearly been jettisoned.
The tax cuts he secured for the wealthy and corporations were not popular. Healthcare is an utter bust for Republicans. Only a fringe of social conservatives is obsessed with appointing right-wing judges.
His key issue was, and still is, immigration as a proxy for white power.
So the last thing Mr Trump wants is any resolution or even improvement of the immigration issue.
Instead, he is counting on endless, bitter fights about immigration that allow him to pose as the indignant champion of white America, against the treasonous liberals who want to hand the country over to the Mexican “rapists” and Muslim “terrorists” pouring over the border to – as he insists – steal jobs and kill people.
That's why Mr Trump didn't bother asking Congress to fund his border wall project when his party controlled the legislature for the first two years of his presidency. As soon as Democrats had the power to block it, this funding suddenly became a pressing issue, even prompting Mr Trump to impose a lengthy partial federal government shutdown.
Clearly, he doesn't care about actually building a wall or he would have done it when it was relatively easier. What he wants is not a wall but an endless fight about a wall. And he’s got it.
The same goes for curtailing immigration. Many of his pronouncements, such as repeatedly threatening to close the border but not actually doing so, or vowing to tighten criteria for granting asylum, inevitably produce surges of people trying to cross into the US as soon as they can. There is a new rush to get into the US each time he makes such a statement and cynically exacerbates the problem.
This immigration crisis is a self-fulfilling prophecy for Mr Trump. He described a border crisis that didn't exist, enacted measures to ensure one would develop and he is now flailing around with dramatic threats, grand gestures and sound and fury signifying nothing. That is exactly what he wants and why he is carefully avoiding doing anything that might improve the crisis. He has even cut aid to Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, the very countries whose violence and poverty migrants are fleeing in the first place, a move which can only prompt an increase in numbers at the border.
Mr Trump is clearly determined to spend the 18 months before the next election posing as the saviour of white America. The most obvious way he can do that is by stoking fears of migrants, especially given that terrorism in the US is now almost entirely committed by white nationalist extremists.
Expect him to continue exacerbating the immigration crisis while raging against it – and avoiding taking any steps that might ease or resolve it. That's working for him perfectly.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
More coverage from the Future Forum
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
'The Sky is Everywhere'
Director:Josephine Decker
Stars:Grace Kaufman, Pico Alexander, Jacques Colimon
Rating:2/5
TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.
Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution