America’s ‘blue wave’ marks a historic watershed for Trump and the Maga Republicans

A public opinion poll is a snapshot of a moment; a wipe-out election such as Tuesday’s midterms has roots that run deeper into history.

The word “historic” is thrown around so much these days; it has been shorn of meaning. But make no mistake, what happened this week is historic. There has not been a governing party wipe-out on this scale in the US since the 1974 midterms – also known as the “Watergate election”. That’s more than half a century ago.

Just two years earlier, then-president Richard Nixon had been elected in a landslide that was also “historic”. But after 20 months, he had been forced to resign and his party was left to face the music in the midterms.

Donald the lame duck president

This week’s midterms stand comparison in scale if not specifics. One of their roots can be traced back to the 2024 presidential campaign.

Democratic president Joe Biden made the fatal decision to run for a second term when he clearly was not physically up to the task. Then his late drop-out put vice president Kamala Harris in an impossible position to run an effective campaign.

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Elon Musk loses bet on Republicans in the midterms

President Donald Trump won handily but not in a Nixon-level landslide. Mr Trump was never as popular as he thought or as he has acted since his second inauguration. What he had was a rubber-stamp majority in both houses of Congress in thrall to his Maga vision. He and his team seriously overplayed their hand.

From ICE snatch squads, to endorsement of large AI data centres, to even more tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy while throwing people off their health insurance, and turning over the keys to government to someone as unpopular as Elon Musk, the White House/Maga-led Congress has made bad political decisions.

The No Kings rallies were easily dismissed, but they were harbingers of popular anger that fuelled the second-highest voter turnout since 1918. The highest? The 2018 midterms.

In results such as Tuesday’s, it is hard to pick one single thing that caused the Democratic sweep. There are a few to think about, and they don’t entirely have to do with Mr Trump.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed became the first Muslim elected to the Senate. This is the second autumn in a row that the son of a Muslim immigrant with a left-leaning populist economic message won a major election. Last year, it was Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race.

Both men faced heavy headwinds from the mainstream media and Aipac funding for their opponents. Both were extraordinarily gifted campaigners for this new media age. And, crucially, both received a significant share of the Jewish vote. Exit polls indicate Mr El-Sayed received close to 60 per cent of Michigan’s Jewish vote.

It says volumes about American society that on the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, the son of an Egyptian immigrant could win handily over a Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, who had made his reputation in the House of Representatives as a security and intelligence expert on the post-9/11 Middle East.

It also says volumes about the declining power of Aipac, and the Israel lobby in general, in America’s Jewish community.

Perhaps even more historic was the election of a Democrat, Adam Hamilton, as senator from Kansas. The last time that happened was 1932. Think about what was happening in 1932: the Great Depression was reaching its peak, with farmers in deeply agricultural Kansas losing their farms. It takes a catastrophe on that scale to make Kansans vote Democrat.

Rev Hamilton’s election underscores the economic strain many in the US feel. On the surface, America doesn’t look like it is in a state of Depression, but the economic strain on most – in a time when those at the top seem to have so much – is a potent issue for voters.

The allegations of corruption surrounding Mr Trump, his family and friends have become increasingly offensive – even in Kansas. His alleged self-aggrandisement also hits wrong in the middle of the country. This includes his grand projects such as the new White House ballroom and the Triumphal Arch, whose foundations were meant to be dug this week.

Anecdotal evidence doesn’t make it into exit polling, but it is very much a contributing factor to voters’ rejection

In May, I was in Washington for work and went down to the White House and its environs, including the Reflecting Pool, to see for myself what was going on. For Americans, this area is almost sacred. A trip to Washington is a ritual of growing up; you visit with your parents or with your school.

Now the building is fenced off, as is much of the surrounding area. I heard tourists, many from the American heartland, muttering to themselves and their children about the mess.

Throw in the patrols of army troops all over the city, a sight not seen in peace time, and the experience has become frankly unpleasant. And it has had an effect throughout the country. The Washington Post reports that domestic tourism to the nation’s capital is off 70 per cent this year.

This kind of anecdotal evidence doesn’t make it into exit polling, but it is very much a contributing factor to voters’ rejection of the Maga-led Republican Party.

What the midterms mean for the Gulf is not clear. Vice President JD Vance, with an eye on a presidential run in 2028, was first to break ranks on continued war with Iran. On the morning after the rout, he posted on X: “The reason we lost is the war [with Iran] … any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”

The Republican survivors in Congress and those hoping to run in two years’ time will have understood the impact of Mr Trump’s Iran war on fuel prices. They will also have seen how Mr El-Sayed defeated the Aipac-backed Mr Rogers, and will they make their calculations accordingly.