It is five years since the Ever Given container ship was stuck in the Suez Canal, blocking up one of the world’s most important shipping routes, creating headlines around the world.
Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal not long after sunrise on March 23, 2021, after being buffeted by high winds and a dust storm. The ship settled diagonally across the channel, wedging itself against one side and blocking the other.
The incident prompted vast amounts to be written about global supply chains and their vulnerability to disruption, with hundreds of ships backing up. Based on previous incidents involving smaller stranded ships, some experts suggested it would take weeks to free the Ever Given.
But this modern-day Suez crisis ended, in fact, within six days in 2021 and the canal was free running a short time after that, although the incident created a lagging disruptive impact of delayed shipments.
Back then, some people, this commentator included, suggested the Ever Given crisis would be quickly forgotten because the situation was relatively short-lived, a prediction that proved correct, albeit in part because we now find ourselves in an even more complex moment for shipping than a single vessel being stranded in the Suez. No one is thinking about Ever Given because that was an easy fix in comparison to today.
The current crisis caused by Iran’s illegal blocking of the Strait of Hormuz to most ships – a few “non-hostile” vessels have been allowed through with permission from Tehran – presents itself as seemingly intractable, despite US President Donald Trump issuing an ultimatum to Iran last weekend to reopen the strait or risk “obliteration” of its power plants.
Few need reminding that the Strait of Hormuz closure poses a widespread threat to markets, energy supply and global economic health, quite apart from the ticking military costs. The weeks-long US military campaign against Iran has cost close to $2 billion a day in its initial stages, according to Pentagon officials.
Iran countered Mr Trump’s ultimatum by repeatedly threatening to lay sea mines across the Gulf. Mr Trump later said he was “postponing” strikes after “productive conversations” with Iran, who deny such contact as having taken place. The US President later insisted a deal had been forged.
Indiscriminate attacks by Iran against the Gulf countries have occurred since February 28, To date, more than 2,100 projectiles – ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles or drones – have been intercepted by this country’s armed forces as a result of Iran’s persistent assaults. The UAE and the rest of the Gulf remains resilient and vigilant in the face of such concerted aggression.
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, said earlier this week that the country would not be blackmailed. Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, described the UAE’s mood as one of “unwavering strength” and characterised Iran as making misguided calculations in its “bullying of the strait”. He said it was “inconceivable that aggression should become a permanent state of threat”.
On Monday, Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Adnoc managing director and chief executive, described Iran’s action as “economic terrorism” against the world, adding that “no country should be allowed to hold Hormuz hostage”.
The UAE is one of more than 20 signatories of a joint statement calling for an immediate halt to attack on vessels in the strait and the multi-layered threats Iran continues to make through words and deeds. The declaration reminds Iran that safe passage for shipping is enshrined in international law. The UN Security Council is expected to consider a draft resolution to protect shipping in the strait.
While predictions are a fool’s errand with events moving quickly, a few things may hold true in the days and weeks to come.
Any mining or closure of the strait by Iran is an act of self-harm as well as economic terrorism.
International law is on the side of the shipping industry to get trade moving, but movement depends upon the risk appetite of owners and seafarers, as well as de-escalation by aggressors, a prospect that appears faint at present, although diplomatic wheels are beginning to turn. Even if the threat level quickly dissipates, costly disruption will be with us for months.
History also tells us that the shipping industry’s past is filled with moments of extreme crisis through which it, the most global of industries, has endured. For that reason, the Tanker Wars of the 1980s are pages in history rather than a continuous sequence stretching from then until now. Although that nugget in itself will be of little comfort presently to the thousands of sailors on hundreds of ships, especially given the acute nature of the current moment.
Finally, this is a crisis that will endure in the memory, unlike, perhaps, the Ever Given incident five years ago.
And where is it in all this? Earlier this week, it was sailing the South China Sea, en route from Cambodia to Singapore, according to vessel-tracking websites, far away from the literal and metaphorical stormy weather in the Strait of Hormuz.
