Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Monday delivered a blunt message to European leaders: without the US, the continent cannot defend itself. Mr Rutte gets what many Nato nations seem reluctant to grasp. The transatlantic alliance is not a preference but a structural necessity. And the price of true military independence from the US is one EU nations can’t and won’t pay.
One year after its release, implementation of the so-called “Draghi Plan”– formally known as the report on European Competitiveness – is dragging. As of late 2025, only 43 of the report’s 383 recommendations have been implemented, and the EU is failing to match the speed of global rivals China and America. Deeply entrenched structural and political hurdles have kept Europe from moving forward even to save itself; what hope can they realistically have of getting it together to supplant the US in Nato?
For most Europeans, overweened on decades of American-backed security and largesse, largely ignorant of the peace and economic gains it has bought them, the urge to go it alone isn’t yet tempered by the fiscal responsibility such a move would entail. Today, the US spends 3.5 per cent of its GDP on defence, while European Nato members still average just 2 per cent. And while recent calls to get the numbers up have been successful, the continent is nowhere near the level of spending required even if the US stays in the game, let alone if Europe decides to go it alone.
Europe lacks command systems, global intelligence infrastructure and rapid power projection capabilities; France is the only European nation to maintain a nuclear deterrent independent of the US. That’s because America has had Europe’s back for decades, investing trillions of US taxpayer dollars in its security, and mostly ignoring countries who repeatedly failed to keep up with their Nato commitments.
Until President Donald Trump. I was there in 2018 when Mr Trump called out the laggards and warned of the danger of over-reliance on Russian energy. His comments were met with outrage and resistance at the time; I think we can all agree now to their prescience.
Now, while Europe is ringing with calls for strategic autonomy, Mr Rutte’s response is unequivocal: they’re dreaming. Sure, it’s a message that plays well at the moment with Europe’s voters: stand up to Trump. But a Nato sans America would require a massive increase in spending, doubling current targets to 10 per cent of GDP. Add to that the inevitable duplication of industries and inefficient allocation of resources across the continent. The absence of America’s nuclear umbrella would make Europe hopelessly vulnerable at a time when its people appear deeply reluctant to serve and defend. The reality is stark: without the cloak of American security, Europe might cease to exist.
But the fact that Mr Rutte’s comments have caused such a commotion is merely testament to the failure of Europe’s ruling classes to educate themselves or their people on the issues. In the days before Davos, we heard a growing number of EU leaders posture about the continent’s strength; post-WEF rhetoric has been equally fantastical.
For far too long, many of Europe’s Nato members have refused to face facts: abandoning US protection would force European countries to undertake an extraordinary and politically explosive effort to build their own capabilities, costing billions of euros. Add to that a truly concerning number of young people in the UK and Europe who are uninterested in or even outright opposed to military service. Mr Rutte can’t be the only European who gets it; now is the time to find others who do.
