In the wake of Davos, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s message that the “old order” was over and that middle powers now needed to pursue a “variable geometry” of partnerships, a Chinese think tank head has praised the 11-member Association of South-East Asian Nations as having a world view that “suddenly looks like the smartest strategy in the room”.
“South-East Asia has survived by refusing to view the world in black and white. It doesn’t do ‘zero-sum’,” wrote Ding Jie, director of the Centre for International Relations Studies at the Academy of Contemporary China and World Studies in Beijing.
“Stability here isn’t achieved by dominance; it’s achieved by balance. Asean’s value lies in being a connector, not a barrier. It welcomes investment from East and West not out of naivety, but because resilience depends on diversification. In a fractured world, the ability to talk to everyone is not a lack of conviction; it is a competitive advantage.”
It’s a very positive view of the nearly 700 million-strong association, which deserves credit for not just (mostly) helping keep the peace in the region since its founding in 1967, but also for making the very idea of “South-East Asia” more tangible and real.
The question, however, is: will Asean be able to make the most of that “competitive advantage” in 2026?
We are one month into the Philippines taking over the rotating annual chairmanship of the association. The country’s President, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, sounded confident last November when he outlined his plans for this year. Resting on the three pillars of “Peace and Security Anchors, Prosperity Corridors and People Empowerment”, he looked to the role that “safe, ethical, responsible, equitable and sustainable adoption of AI in all areas” could play in supporting economic growth, security and broadening access to essential services.
That sounds great in theory. Implementation across a grouping that includes wealthy Singapore and new member Timor-Leste – where about half the population is classified as “multidimensionally poor” by the UN – will be another matter. There are also several major challenges that would face any country chairing Asean this year, but one which concerns the Philippines in particular.
That last one will be under the magnifying glass this very week. Asean and China are due to hold negotiations in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Friday, a day after the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Retreat. The subject will be the proposed Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, an agreement that is meant to promote the “peaceful solution of disputes” and pursuit of maritime co-operation, in what are, however, heavily disputed waters.
Discussions about such a code have been going on for a very long time. Asean and China issued a Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea as far back as 2002, and serious discussions on the COC have been going on since 2018.
Mohamad Hasan, Foreign Minister of last year’s Asean chair, Malaysia, recently said that 70 per cent of the COC’s content had been agreed on. But finalising the last 30 per cent and concluding the agreement this year, which is the aim, will not be helped by the fact that tensions in the South China Sea are at their highest between Beijing and Manila.
The US and the Philippines have just held a joint military drill at a shoal that is also claimed by China, and there have been several incidents involving collisions, use of water cannon and laser lights, and injuries since Manila started taking a much more assertive position in these seas after Mr Marcos Jr took office in 2022.
Over the past week, Chinese coastguards rescued 17 Filipino sailors from a boat that sank around the same disputed shoal, which may provide goodwill to lift the imminent COC talks. Nevertheless, if Mr Marcos Jr actually felt the need to say “I do not think anybody wants to go to war” last November, it does not seem optimal that it should be his country that is leading the push to get the COC signed this year.
The truce in the border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia may have been claimed by US Donald Trump as his achievement; regionally, it is seen as an Asean matter that last year’s chair, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, oversaw. But the peace is fragile, and if the Philippines does not have the capacity to bring the sides together, and that process is ceded to the US and China – as some have suggested – that will not reflect well on the much vamped “Asean centrality”.
In his speech last November, Mr Marcos Jr announced the appointment of a special envoy for Myanmar, Theresa P Lazaro, and said he was confident she would “bring a constructive, principled and inclusive approach to supporting the people of Myanmar … as we work together towards peace, stability and reconciliation”.
He added: “Secretary Tess, you better get this done. I already made a promise to everyone.” That may have been a light-hearted quip, but ending the civil war in Myanmar, which has just finished an election that Asean has refused to endorse, is a prize that has so far eluded every politician and every organisation, from Asean to the UN. Good luck to “Secretary Tess” – but it would be a miracle if she could “get this done”.
Then there will be the test of helping Timor-Leste integrate into the association. Before the country joined Asean last year, a senior regional diplomat warned me that some of the leaders of the former Portuguese colony “think they’re European” and might struggle to adapt to the more consensual Asean way and their status within the grouping. The country’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning President, Jose Ramos-Horta, may be a human rights figure abroad. In Asean, he’s the leader of small state.
So there is plenty on the plate of this year’s Asean chair. The region must hope that Mr Marcos Jr has the bandwidth to concentrate on these issues, and not be too distracted by the corruption scandals that keep exploding back home.
Let’s return to the Chinese think tank head, who also wrote that the new world “is being built by those who show up, speak up and refuse to pick sides”. That is exactly the Asean tradition. The Philippines must hold fast to that this year to successfully ride these new waves of disorder, and not be submerged, like many of the guard rails of the drowning old world system.
