When the Arab uprisings began more than 13 years ago, I wrote an essay asking if South-East and East Asia could offer any lessons about how countries there had managed their own political transitions, pathways to reform, and efforts to promote reconciliation after often violent pasts.
In most cases, the Arab uprisings failed. But today, as we may be witnessing the birth of a new Syria, while other conflicts still rage in the Levant and Horn of Africa, I believe East Asia again provides useful examples about how to manage differences, so that former foes can not just co-exist but even possibly end up as partners in government.
Two quotes sum them up. The first comes from Vacharaesorn Vivacharawongse, the once-exiled second son of Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who some believe is being “road-tested” to see if he might be a suitable heir apparent. Mr Vacharaesorn has no formal role, but he has said: “I’m keenly aware that His Majesty allows me to be in the country and to perform all the things I’ve been doing.”
One of those is declaring that he is open to discussions about reform, including to the country’s strict lese-majeste laws, which are supposed to protect the monarchy, but which critics say have frequently been misused for political purposes.
In the Thai context, for the King’s son to state this is astounding. But it’s what he has to say about how you manage change that I think is important. "You don't smash something with a hammer and expect everybody to be happy about it. You do things in a soft manner. You do things in a respectful manner. And then let history – and the tides of where the world is going – take you."
This appears to be advice already taken to heart in Syria, with the emphasis on keeping institutions intact. The disaster of de-Baathification in Iraq is not an example any country should want to follow. “Revolution” may be a powerful word, but reform – that is, not “smashing something with a hammer” – was the key to many successful transitions in South-East Asia. Institutions were gradually changed, rather than swept away, and historical continuity was emphasised when elements of previous constitutions were revived.
The second quote is from Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. His Vice President, Sara Duterte, had said that if she was killed, she had instructed an assassin to murder not only Mr Marcos Jr, but also his wife and his cousin, who is the Speaker of the House of Representatives. This didn’t go down well with the general population – Ms Duterte’s approval ratings have fallen 10 percentage points since she made the threat. Mr Marcos, however, has been rather conciliatory about it. Asked to comment on Ms Duterte’s assessment that her relations with her boss had reached “the point of no return” and were now beyond repair, Mr Marcos Jr said: “Never say never.”
That may sound startlingly magnanimous in the circumstances, but it’s an expression that rings true through much of the region. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's coalition is in power with the former governing coalition, Barisan Nasional, after decades of publicly vilifying each other. In Indonesia, President Prabowo Subianto was a bitter rival to his predecessor Joko Widodo, losing to him twice in presidential elections. But then Mr Prabowo became part of his administration, and Mr Jokowi's son is now Mr Prabowo’s Vice President.
In Thailand, after the 2023 election, Pheu Thai – the party associated with the Thaksin family – ended up in power with the royalist-conservative establishment parties aligned to the same military that had twice forced the Thaksins from power by taking over in coups.
In Myanmar, it also ended in a coup, in 2021; but from 2012 onwards the country’s former de facto head of government, Aung San Suu Kyi, spent nearly a decade working with military that had kept her under house arrest for 15 years, as well as attempting to assassinate her once. Even in Singapore, there are instances of children of opposition figures bankrupted by defamation suits who nevertheless went on to have leading positions in governmental organisations.
“Never say never” isn’t borne out everywhere, but this attitude has been apparent in the South-East Asian countries. In some cases, only relatively recently: it would have been far less likely to have been manifested under the "big" leaders of the past – Suharto in Indonesia, Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad (during the first time he was prime minister, from 1981-2003), Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, Ferdinand Marcos Sr in the Philippines, or Gen Ne Win in Myanmar.
But that’s part of the point: this spirit of compromise, and of working with former opponents, has been a feature of reform and democratisation processes in the countries above. It may sometimes happen out of political necessity, but in a region where consensus-seeking is part of traditional modes of governance, it’s also a virtue that can contribute to stability, harmony and reconciliation.
So: “don’t smash things with a hammer” and “never say never”. These are two simple, but important, points from South-East Asia that could prove useful in the Middle East and Horn of Africa, as they face a new year in which it must be hoped that conflict resolution and state building replace the war and repression that have marred too many states for too long. Their peoples deserve better.
