Syria after Assad can use its rich history to build a bright future

The seismic events in Syria over the past few days can be described as a black swan event, a term coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to denote an occurrence that is highly improbable yet has a huge impact.

The overthrow of the Baathist government is poised to have significant repercussions, not only within the country but also across the broader region. Whether these consequences will be positive or negative will depend on the choices made by Syria’s interim and long-term leadership.

More than a decade ago, I wrote an article highlighting a significant shift in the Arab world’s centres of gravity in culture, economy and diplomacy. This shift saw the traditional capitals of Cairo, Baghdad, Beirut and Damascus ceding prominence to emerging hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Dubai, Doha and Sharjah. The triumph of the Syrian uprising holds the potential to rebalance the haemorrhaging of influence from these once-great cities. It could finally provide an opportunity for one of the Arab world’s traditional leading capitals, battered by decades of corruption, mismanagement and brain drain, to begin reclaiming the mantle it once proudly held.

Syrians begin leaving Turkey after fall of Assad regime

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However, for that to occur, Syria will need a confluence of critical factors to align.

The first and most essential is the establishment of a competent, just, secular and progressive government, consisting of technocrats – one that prioritises the rule of law, inclusivity and equitable governance. Such a government must work to rebuild trust among its citizens, address the deep scars left by years of conflict, and foster a sense of unity and shared purpose. This new government should also engage with friendly states in the Arab world, as well as Turkey, to draw upon their expertise in economic and tourism development. Collaborative partnerships in these fields could provide valuable insights and support, enabling Syria to rebuild its infrastructure, attract investment and create sustainable growth opportunities.

It is essential that the Syrian authorities learn from the best practices implemented across the region including in the Gulf countries. The successes achieved in the UAE demonstrate that similar progress is entirely possible in Syria. The country possesses all the necessary components for stellar success: a strategic geographic location, abundant natural resources, a youthful and ambitious population, a globally spread and successful diaspora, and a wealth of archaeological and historical sites. By using these assets and adopting proven strategies, Syria has the potential to rebuild and thrive, positioning itself as a significant player in the region once again.

Syrian sculptor Khaled Dawwa works on a clay art piece, representing a street in Syria destroyed by government forces and their allies, during a photo session in his workshop in Vanves, near Paris. AFP

Syria must avoid a destructive purge akin to the de-Baathification process led by Paul Bremer during the US-led occupation of Iraq, which effectively hollowed out the Iraqi administration by removing experienced bureaucrats and technocrats. Such actions left Iraq’s institutions weakened and ill-equipped to function, contributing to prolonged instability.

Instead, Syria should prioritise reconciliation and the preservation of institutional knowledge while carefully balancing accountability with the need for administrative continuity and expertise. In attempting to heal some of its scars, Syria could also learn from the experience of Morocco’s Equity and Reconciliation Commission.

Syria has long held a prominent cultural role in the Arab world and its impact on the region can hardly be exaggerated and perhaps is second only to Egypt. It is, after all, where in 1919 the Arabic Language Academy was founded and where significant figures of the Arab Renaissance originated from. It is home to some of the most prominent Arab artists, poets, novelists and cultural leaders who affected not only our language but also our identities as Arabs from North Africa to the Gulf.

However, decades of conflict, underinvestment and governmental overreach have led to a decline in the quality of Syria’s artistic output, including fine art, film, television and theatre. This deterioration mirrors challenges faced across the Arab world due to excessive state interference in cultural production.

As the Egyptian author Ahmed Naji suggests: “Just imagine the cultural and artistic impact that Syria could have if it started producing free drama and cinema.” The current moment offers a critical opportunity for Syrians to relaunch the cultural sector in the country and affirm its position as a trailblazer in the region for free and effective cultural production.

Finally, Syria must harness the skills and resources of all its sons and daughters in the diaspora. This includes not only the refugees and exiles who fled during the past decade and a half of conflict but also those who left decades earlier due to the rise of authoritarian rule. Among them are Syrians who have built successful lives in the West, including the Syrian Jewish community in New York, renowned for their expertise in real estate development and investment. Their contributions could play a vital role in rebuilding the country, provided they are granted equal rights and opportunities to participate in Syria’s future.

The reality is that while it is highly improbable for all these elements to align perfectly, it is not impossible. A crucial factor will be the presence of an often-elusive final ingredient: luck. Will Syria take advantage of this black swan moment, rise to the occasion and soar, or will it falter under the weight of its challenges?

Smart words at Make Smart Cool

Make Smart Cool is not your usual festival. Dubbed “edutainment” by organisers Najahi Events, Make Smart Cool aims to inspire its youthful target audience through a mix of interactive presentation by social media influencers and a concert finale featuring Example with DJ Wire. Here are some of the speakers sharing their inspiration and experiences on the night.
Prince Ea
With his social media videos accumulating more half a billion views, the American motivational speaker is hot on the college circuit in the US, with talks that focus on the many ways to generate passion and motivation when it comes to learning.
Khalid Al Ameri
The Emirati columnist and presenter is much loved by local youth, with writings and presentations about education, entrepreneurship and family balance. His lectures on career and personal development are sought after by the education and business sector.
Ben Ouattara
Born to an Ivorian father and German mother, the Dubai-based fitness instructor and motivational speaker is all about conquering fears and insecurities. His talk focuses on the need to gain emotional and physical fitness when facing life’s challenges. As well managing his film production company, Ouattara is one of the official ambassadors of Dubai Expo2020.

ETFs explained

Exhchange traded funds are bought and sold like shares, but operate as index-tracking funds, passively following their chosen indices, such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and the FTSE All World, plus a vast range of smaller exchanges and commodities, such as gold, silver, copper sugar, coffee and oil.

ETFs have zero upfront fees and annual charges as low as 0.07 per cent a year, which means you get to keep more of your returns, as actively managed funds can charge as much as 1.5 per cent a year.

There are thousands to choose from, with the five biggest providers BlackRock’s iShares range, Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETFs, Deutsche Bank AWM X-trackers and Invesco PowerShares.

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.

8. Pillar 2 implementation

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer