A supporter of pro-Iran factions raises a placard in Baghdad's Tahrir square, during a protest against the US and British forces strikes targeting Houthi rebels, on January 13 AFP
A supporter of pro-Iran factions raises a placard in Baghdad's Tahrir square, during a protest against the US and British forces strikes targeting Houthi rebels, on January 13 AFP
A supporter of pro-Iran factions raises a placard in Baghdad's Tahrir square, during a protest against the US and British forces strikes targeting Houthi rebels, on January 13 AFP
Prof Dlawer Ala’Aldeen is president of the Middle East Research Institute
January 15, 2024
Iran considers American military presence in neighbouring Iraq a strategic threat to its own national security, and it wants it eliminated at this opportune time. This will give Tehran free rein in the Levant, weaken US support to the Gulf countries and restructure the region’s security architecture on its terms.
Iran perceives vulnerabilities in the current US administration under President Joe Biden, particularly as the latter is focused on other priorities, such as the Ukraine and Gaza wars, and has one eye on elections this year. Tehran also knows that the US continues to hope, rightly or wrongly, for a compromise deal with it on a series of security issues. This window of opportunity may close if Donald Trump defeats Mr Biden in November and returns to the presidency. Therefore, it is time to play hard and exert maximum pressure on the US across the Middle East.
Iran’s leaders believe that the US is, as it has always been in Iraq, amenable to pressure, and keen to avoid escalation. And when Washington retaliates against an attack on its forces, it goes after the Tehran-backed proxies elsewhere, away from Iran.
That said, Iran does not want the total elimination of US diplomatic and economic presence in Iraq, for this will harm its interests too. An isolated and failed Iraq is not good for Iran. It still needs for indirect access to the West. The Iranian regime, after all, uses Iraq to both bypass US-led sanctions on Tehran and support its proxies across the region.
A member of Iraq's Special Operations Forces stands guard during the funeral of Hassan Hammadi Al Amiri, a fallen member of Kataeb Hezbollah in Baghdad after he was killed in a US air strike last December. AFP
Iraq’s leaders realise that if they succumb to the demand of pro-Iranian groups and push the Americans out, it is not clear who their next target will be
The US, on the other hand, does not want to leave Iraq at this critical time. Were it to withdraw its troops, it would do so on its own terms and in its own time. American military and security presence in Iraq is of great strategic importance, not just for fighting ISIS and keeping a close eye on Iran, but also for providing support to its bases in Syria.
If pushed to leave in haste, it will risk creating a void that no western power can fill, with the US unable to return for years, if not decades, to come. Such a departure, from the US’s point of view, will not occur in a friendly manner and Iraq may not escape its adverse consequences.
America’s coalition partners, including the Europeans, have a stake in Iraq too. They have been investing in the country’s stability and integrity for years, and collectively committed billions of dollars and many lives. They have been able to support Iraq only because US forces are able to provide the necessary security umbrella and military infrastructure. An American departure will inevitably lead to their exit too. The coalition partners believe that they have earned their place in Iraq, that they should have a big say in their partnership, and their concerns are not ignored.
A fragile Iraq is caught between a rock and a hard place. It is unable to challenge Iran’s hegemony, or the overwhelming power of a superpower that can penalise the country with dire consequences. Baghdad, therefore, is not ready to see the US or its coalition partners leave. It is still not able to prevent threats from ISIS or the more sophisticated armed groups that possess drones and missiles. By pushing the remaining 2,500 US troops out of the country, under Iranian pressure, the country will inevitably lose whatever goodwill it has left in Washington. Iraq is no Iran; it is too fragile to survive financial and diplomatic isolation.
Iraq’s leaders realise that if they succumb to the demand of pro-Iranian groups and push the Americans out, it is not clear who their next target will be. The Kurdish and Sunni Arab parties believe they will be next in the firing line. Once the coalition partners are forced out, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq might feel vulnerable. Militias have targeted not only US-occupied bases in Kurdistan, but also dropped bombs close to Kurdish leaders’ offices.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani attends a news conference with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Baghdad last December. AFP
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani and his government must be gravely concerned about Iraq becoming a battleground between an eternally overbearing neighbour and an indispensable global partner. Baghdad is currently distracted from its investment-oriented agenda, which is under threat. Worse still, the government’s key supporters – members of the Co-ordination Framework, an umbrella bloc of Iraqi Shiite parties – are making it even more difficult for Mr Al Sudani to initiate a credible roadmap for US withdrawal.
These parties claim to support the government’s approach, but they concurrently fuel a populistic anti-coalition campaign and defend the militias’ illegal actions. The Prime Minister has described attacks on US troops as “terrorism”, even as many of the Co-ordination Framework members consider them to be legitimate and righteous.
It is no secret that the pro-Iranian groups now dominate the legislative, executive and judicial branches. More recently, they have overwhelmed provincial councils across Iraq, with the exception of those in Kurdistan. The non-state actors are now acting as the state, imposing policies while hindering reform. With such overwhelming influence, it will take a miracle for the Iraqi government to please everyone while emerging victorious.
Nonetheless, it can still pursue a credible process, put Iraq’s interests first and ring-fence the country from transcontinental rivalries. Iraq must negotiate a deal with the coalition with no arbitrary timelines or deadlines. It must engage in a comprehensive dialogue, involving all the coalition partners and including all sectors of engagement, covering security, economic, environmental, social and cultural issues. Any other approach will be risky and may lead to a lose-lose outcome for all stakeholders.
The US can, and should, exercise strategic patience and give the Iraqi government space. Pressuring a Shiite-led government into picking sides will not lead to Baghdad choosing Washington over Tehran. The Iranians, for their part, should not undermine the Iraqi state or its government any further. Otherwise, they risk escalating the situation beyond even their control, which could engulf their own country.
New UK refugee system
A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
- Carbonated drinks, sweet or savoury packaged snacks, confectionery, mass-produced packaged breads and buns
- margarines and spreads; cookies, biscuits, pastries, cakes, and cake mixes, breakfast cereals, cereal and energy bars;
- energy drinks, milk drinks, fruit yoghurts and fruit drinks, cocoa drinks, meat and chicken extracts and instant sauces
- infant formulas and follow-on milks, health and slimming products such as powdered or fortified meal and dish substitutes,
- many ready-to-heat products including pre-prepared pies and pasta and pizza dishes, poultry and fish nuggets and sticks, sausages, burgers, hot dogs, and other reconstituted meat products, powdered and packaged instant soups, noodles and desserts.
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Southampton v Watford (late)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
PROFILE OF STARZPLAY
Date started: 2014
Founders: Maaz Sheikh, Danny Bates
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment/Streaming Video On Demand
Number of employees: 125
Investors/Investment amount: $125 million. Major investors include Starz/Lionsgate, State Street, SEQ and Delta Partners
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
