Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
December 31, 2023
As we are set to navigate the uncertainties of 2024, made worse by the imprudence and strategic manoeuvrings of both major and minor players using dangerous, even ruthless, means to secure their positions and ambitions, we must reckon with the anxiety, anticipation and fear lying ahead. Indeed, all rules have been broken, and the laws of war and peace have been stripped of their humanitarian obligations.
Let us first delve into the region’s most significant event of 2023 – the Israel-Gaza war. It has become evident that a siege mentality dominates Israel’s past, present and future. The notion of co-existence with Arab neighbours is distorted in the minds of many. Regrettably, it is squandering a historic opportunity for co-existence and normalisation, not only with Arab countries but also with other Islamic nations, including Iran. The magnitude of this mistake is substantial and potentially irreversible if not rectified.
A war characterised by brutality, extermination and violations of international laws and humanitarian treaties, all under the pretext of seeking revenge for Hamas’s actions on October 7, is self-defeating in the long run. Conversely, those who sympathise with the actions of the Qassam Brigades are also part of the problem.
So what will happen to Gaza?
Despite behind-the-scenes talks, it is unlikely that the world will unite to impose a ceasefire on Israel and force it into comprehensive settlement negotiations. What is remarkable is the simplicity of the equation that could give both the Palestinian and Israeli people a prosperous future – the equation of the two-state solution. Israel’s rejection of this solution means rejecting the Arab-Islamic offer of prosperity, co-operation and the construction of a peaceful future for the Middle East.
We must hold on to our aspirations and the belief that faith remains the faint light in the pitch darkness
Strategically, Israel is losing. This is the case even if it makes tactical gains against Hamas, having turned itself into a counterpart of a militant group, not a state, in war and peace, and reducing its own stature. Hamas is also losing strategically, as all it wants after all this destruction and killing is to not cease to exist. It has little chance of realising its objective of controlling the West Bank and it is unlikely to play a significant role in any comprehensive settlement deal to follow the challenging transitional phase.
It is evident that the administration of US President Joe Biden is determined to continue preventing Israel from drawing Lebanon or dragging America into a regional conflict.
Mr Biden’s team is also indirectly engaging with Iran to restrain Hezbollah while the US restrains Israel's actions towards Lebanon. It is the equation of provocation and counter-provocation that Washington is working to prevent – and so far, it is succeeding. The Biden administration does not want the war to expand and become regional, but it does not yet have the formula to ensure avoiding the terrifying loop of provocation.
Meanwhile, freedom of navigation has come under threat due to constant provocations from the Houthis in Yemen – and its attacks on ships may lead to an escalation with the US. Perhaps one safety valve is the Chinese insistence on ensuring navigation security. However, the continued provocation by Iran-backed groups against the US in Syria, Iraq and the strategic waterways may lead to qualitative American operations in the region.
A global war that many fear, and experts discuss, is neither entirely ruled out, nor is it looming over the Middle East, in 2024. That’s the current outlook. There is a fear, however, that a nuclear war will come to Europe’s doorstep after the US delivers F-16 jets, possibly in January, to assist Ukraine in its war with Russia.
A missile explodes over Kyiv during a Russian attack involving missiles and drones. Reuters
At least 10 people were killed and dozens injured in strikes across Ukraine. Reuters
Smoke rises over Kyiv, one of several cities hit in the attack. Reuters
A medical worker helps a survivor of the strike in Kyiv. Reuters
Firefighters tackle a blaze in Kyiv. AP
Buildings, including a maternity hospital and a shopping centre, were damaged in the strikes. Reuters
A warehouse in the Ukrainian capital was heavily damaged in the Russian attack. Reuters
Russia launched about 110 missiles, as well as drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. AP
People take shelter inside a Kyiv metro station during the Russian missile and drone attack. Reuters
Major cities including major cities including Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv were targets in the attack. Reuters
People gather in the city of Dnipro following the attack. EPA
The strikes damaged a shopping mall in Dnipro. EPA
These aircraft will be delivered to bases in Poland and Romania, and Russia has issued official statements considering these bases as legitimate targets. Meanwhile, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, in charge of North and South America relations, stated that Moscow is ready to sever diplomatic relations with the US.
The worst-case scenario is that Russia decides to strike these bases and force Nato to respond militarily. In other words, the fear of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and Nato is not just a theory. The challenge is made all the more potent by the fact that 2024 is an election year in the US, Russia and the European Parliament.
It is not wars and reckless leadership alone that evoke our fears but also rapid scientific and technological progress with unknown implications, especially the extraordinary capabilities of AI, which could pose a threat to our mastery over our own destinies.
Despite all this, we must hold on to our aspirations and the belief that faith remains the faint light in the pitch darkness. Perhaps wisdom, logic and reason will guide world leaders and their peoples to ensure peace, stability and continued prosperity.
Records of all supplies and imports of goods and services
All tax invoices and tax credit notes
Alternative documents related to receiving goods or services
All tax invoices and tax credit notes
Alternative documents issued
Records of goods and services that have been disposed of or used for matters not related to business
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister. "We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know. “All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.” It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins. Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement. The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
Cost: Entry is free but some events require prior registration
Where: Various locations including National Theatre (Abu Dhabi), Abu Dhabi Cultural Center, Zayed University Promenade, Beach Rotana (Abu Dhabi), Vox Cinemas at Yas Mall, Sharjah Youth Center
What: The Korea Festival will feature art exhibitions, a B-boy dance show, a mini K-pop concert, traditional dance and music performances, food tastings, a beauty seminar, and more.
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Tamkeen's offering
Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
Option 2: 50% across three years
Option 3: 30% across five years
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
23-man shortlist for next six Hall of Fame inductees
Tony Adams, David Beckham, Dennis Bergkamp, Sol Campbell, Eric Cantona, Andrew Cole, Ashley Cole, Didier Drogba, Les Ferdinand, Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Steven Gerrard, Roy Keane, Frank Lampard, Matt Le Tissier, Michael Owen, Peter Schmeichel, Paul Scholes, John Terry, Robin van Persie, Nemanja Vidic, Patrick Viera, Ian Wright.
Booklava works on a subscription model. On signing up you receive a free book as part of a 30-day-trial period, after which you pay US$9.99 (Dh36.70) per month to gain access to a library of books and discounts of up to 30 per cent on selected titles. You can cancel your subscription at any time. For more details go to www.booklava.com
