A peculiarly British tradition is the Christmas Number One, the best-selling pop song of the season. Right now, number one in the charts is Last Christmas by Wham! The fact that the single was released in 1984 plays to a British adherence to tradition and fondness for recycling things from the past that at times amounts to ancestor worship.
While listening to the radio, in among the age-old Christmas carols and 1950s crooners such as Bing Crosby, I heard another old favourite: John Lennon’s Imagine. You would have to be more than 50 years old to remember when Imagine was released. In 1971, Lennon was imagining a better, peaceful world amid all kinds of grim news. That has obvious resonance right now as we contemplate the end of 2023 and imagine a better New Year.
Back in 1971 the world was in the depths of the Cold War. Europe was divided between East and West. Berlin had a wall which split families and friends. There was tension in the Middle East, a war in Vietnam that was spreading beyond its borders, domestic trouble across the US and – again, as usual – political divisions in many parts of the world.
And so now on the edge of 2024, rather than doing the annual look back on the highs and a lot of lows of 2023, with the sounds of Imagine still ringing in my ears, I wondered if it is possible to imagine the coming year in the spirit of John Lennon’s semi-optimism. Could we imagine a year in which, as another great visionary, Martin Luther King Jr put it, people are judged by the content of their character, not the colour of their skin?
Could we imagine a world in which people of the three great Abrahamic faiths come together to decide that it is acceptable to discuss religious differences but unacceptable to kill or persecute people because of those differences in faith?
The prospect of a re-match next November between Biden and Trump does not set the heart singing with joy
Could we imagine living up to the ideals of the 2017 Bahrain Declaration for a world in which no-one is subjected to violence or terror because of their gender, nationality or the way they choose to worship – or not worship? Perhaps.
What we can certainly predict is that 2024 will be the year of elections worldwide, with all the uncertainty that political divisions bring. Electoral contests are already beginning in the US, Britain and across the EU. There are dozens of others in countries right through the diplomatic alphabet from Algeria and Brazil to Venezuela. The British general election, some insiders say, will be in October. Others think it could be in May. Either way the UK faces months of uncertainty and argument.
So does the US. The prospect of a re-match next November between Joe Biden and Donald Trump does not set the heart singing with joy. And so, in light-hearted end-of-year conversations with some Washington friends and insiders recently, I have been trying to imagine (not always seriously) if among more than 350 million Americans some new talented person might break the mould and provide an alternative to the usual Trump-Biden politics.
In a discussion with a well-informed American lawyer, we joked about a star third candidate who might cheer us all up yet also be competent and highly regarded. And we came up with the obvious winner: Taylor Swift. No, seriously. Think about it. Does she break the mould? Yes. Brilliant communicator? Yes. Less than half the age of Mr Trump or Mr Biden? Popular? Successful in business? Yes, yes, yes. More successful in business than Mr Trump, you might say, and with less unpleasant baggage.
The only possible disqualification of a Taylor Swift presidency (apart from her not being interested) came when my American lawyer friend pointed out that presidents must be at least 35 years of age. Taylor Swift is 34. Then a quick check told us the good news. Under the US Constitution a president must be 35 years old but only when they take office. The inauguration is in January 2025 at which time Taylor Swift will be 35 years old.
So that’s it. Settled. The youngest US president in history and the first woman US president in history. Imagine. Of course, even in the land where almost anything at times seems possible, Swift is undoubtedly too smart to throw away a wonderful career as a superstar for the grind of political office. But maybe that reveals why so much of our politics around the world needs to be re-booted as less destructive and more positive.
We could start by imagining how we can build on the Cop28 process and the agreement reached. We could think how to reward leaders who at least try to solve problems rather than create them. We could then imagine a happier new year after what’s been an often-miserable 2023. After all John Lennon sang in Imagine that he was just a dreamer but then he added: “I’m not the only one.” Happy New Year. We can hope.
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Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Nancy 9 (Hassa Beek)
Nancy Ajram
(In2Musica)
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The five pillars of Islam
The Programme
Saturday, October 26: ‘The Time That Remains’ (2009) by Elia Suleiman
Saturday, November 2: ‘Beginners’ (2010) by Mike Mills
Saturday, November 16: ‘Finding Vivian Maier’ (2013) by John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
Tuesday, November 26: ‘All the President’s Men’ (1976) by Alan J Pakula
Saturday, December 7: ‘Timbuktu’ (2014) by Abderrahmane Sissako
Saturday, December 21: ‘Rams’ (2015) by Grimur Hakonarson
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Racecard
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Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
Roll of honour
Who has won what so far in the West Asia Premiership season?
Western Clubs Champions League - Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners up: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens - Winners: Dubai Exiles; Runners up: Jebel Ali Dragons
West Asia Premiership - Winners: Jebel Ali Dragons; Runners up: Abu Dhabi Harlequins
UAE Premiership Cup - Winners: Abu Dhabi Harlequins; Runners up: Dubai Exiles
West Asia Cup - Winners: Bahrain; Runners up: Dubai Exiles
West Asia Trophy - Winners: Dubai Hurricanes; Runners up: DSC Eagles
Final West Asia Premiership standings - 1. Jebel Ali Dragons; 2. Abu Dhabi Harlequins; 3. Bahrain; 4. Dubai Exiles; 5. Dubai Hurricanes; 6. DSC Eagles; 7. Abu Dhabi Saracens
Fixture (UAE Premiership final) - Friday, April 13, Al Ain – Dubai Exiles v Abu Dhabi Harlequins
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5