Demonstrators chant slogans during a rally in front of the French embassy in Beirut on October 16, in solidarity with the Palestinians. AFP
Demonstrators chant slogans during a rally in front of the French embassy in Beirut on October 16, in solidarity with the Palestinians. AFP
Demonstrators chant slogans during a rally in front of the French embassy in Beirut on October 16, in solidarity with the Palestinians. AFP
Demonstrators chant slogans during a rally in front of the French embassy in Beirut on October 16, in solidarity with the Palestinians. AFP


For all its talk, Hezbollah can ill afford an all-out war with Israel


  • English
  • Arabic

October 18, 2023

According to Israeli journalist Barak Ravid, Iran has informed Israel that it will have to intervene indirectly if Israel’s military operation in Gaza continues. This could mean that Hezbollah will escalate its attacks against Israel to try to prevent an Israeli victory against Hamas, which under certain conditions could lead to Lebanon’s destruction.

However, there are many unknowns. An opening of all fronts against Israel – from Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza – would very likely draw in the Americans. Washington has deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Eastern Mediterranean in a show of support for Israel, along with numerous destroyers with capabilities to shoot down incoming missiles. American forces are also deployed along the Syrian-Iraqi border, and could try to prevent pro-Iran militias in Iraq from entering the fray, if required.

This nightmare scenario is certainly not one that any of the major parties – the US, Iran, Israel and Hezbollah – wants, but the positions into which they have locked themselves only make such an outcome more likely. It could well be that everyone is playing a game of brinkmanship, but it’s also plausible that a regional war will happen.

Largely ignored in all the speculation is how these dynamics might affect Lebanon internally. Israeli officials have often indicated that in any new conflict with Hezbollah, they would devastate the country, which means its strategic targets, such as the airport, ports and other infrastructure, as well as villages and urban areas, Shiite areas in particular. Gaza stands as a testament to what the Israelis can do.

Yet, is an all-out conflict between Hezbollah and Israel a foregone conclusion? While little else might draw Israel’s attention away from crushing Hamas, it is possible that to avoid heavy casualties and major destruction, Hezbollah and the Israelis might stop short of this. A central question then is: will Hezbollah or Israel target strategic sites and cities on the other side?

Shiite anger with Hezbollah could indefinitely cripple its ability to reconstitute itself as an effective force

If a conflict between Hezbollah and Israel remains contained in their border regions, it would be viewed by both sides as taking place within the accepted rules of the game. This is what has happened in the past 10 days when Hezbollah and Israel have absorbed losses without escalating to more in-depth bombing of each other's country.

This could represent an offramp from a full-scale war. The reason is that Hezbollah must be aware that the backlash in Lebanon to such a conflict could be severe for the party. It’s difficult to imagine that the Lebanese religious communities would agree to reconstitute the state as it was after a ruinous war. At a time when Christians are already implying that they would prefer a divorce from the country’s Muslim majority, such a conflict could push them to take steps to enhance their autonomy.

But would Christians be alone in reacting with rage to an imposed war? Sunnis and Druze are just as hostile to Hezbollah’s actions in this regard. As for the Shiite community, it would certainly bear the brunt of Israeli retaliation. And unlike in 2006, there may be no willingness on the part of regional countries, or even Iran, to fund the rebuilding of Shiite villages and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Shiite anger with Hezbollah could indefinitely cripple the party's ability to reconstitute itself as an effective force.

Worse, a Lebanon in disarray could lay the groundwork for internal discord between communities that engages Hezbollah for a long time. The party realises this and knows that a Lebanese civil conflict would be the best option for Israel, in the same way that the country’s civil war proved nearly fatal for the Palestine Liberation Organisation.

From the moment that Hezbollah began floating the mad idea of a “unification of the fronts” – the idea that an Israeli attack on one of the Lebanese, Syrian or Palestinian fronts, or attacks on religious sites such as Al Aqsa Mosque, would provoke a response on the other fronts – it was apparent that the party, with its sponsor Iran, was linking Lebanon’s fate to the Palestinian cause.

For many Lebanese, Shiites in particular, it must have taken them back decades, when the Palestinian armed presence brought successive calamities on Lebanon. Starting in the 1960s, fighting between the Palestinians and Israel devastated Shiite villages. Later, after the civil war began in 1975, Israel twice invaded Lebanon to fight the Palestinians, again destroying Shiite villages.

How would Hezbollah maintain its potency in Lebanon if the outcome is national resentment against the party, amid a catastrophic economic situation? Moreover, the one Lebanese institution that remains functional is the army, and Hezbollah does not want it to become a rallying point for a distraught and devastated Lebanese society.

That is why, with Israel and the US arrayed against Iran and its allies, Hezbollah may seek to sidestep a generalised war, otherwise this may lead to a new Middle East in which the balance of power turns against Iran. The domestic Lebanese situation seems to interest few analysts, but it may prove to be Hezbollah’s real Achilles’ heel.

Live updates: Follow the latest news on Israel-Gaza

Your rights as an employee

The government has taken an increasingly tough line against companies that fail to pay employees on time. Three years ago, the Cabinet passed a decree allowing the government to halt the granting of work permits to companies with wage backlogs.

The new measures passed by the Cabinet in 2016 were an update to the Wage Protection System, which is in place to track whether a company pays its employees on time or not.

If wages are 10 days late, the new measures kick in and the company is alerted it is in breach of labour rules. If wages remain unpaid for a total of 16 days, the authorities can cancel work permits, effectively shutting off operations. Fines of up to Dh5,000 per unpaid employee follow after 60 days.

Despite those measures, late payments remain an issue, particularly in the construction sector. Smaller contractors, such as electrical, plumbing and fit-out businesses, often blame the bigger companies that hire them for wages being late.

The authorities have urged employees to report their companies at the labour ministry or Tawafuq service centres — there are 15 in Abu Dhabi.

Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
  • Priority access to new homes from participating developers
  • Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
  • Flexible payment plans from developers
  • Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
  • DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
TRAINING FOR TOKYO

A typical week's training for Sebastian, who is competing at the ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon on March 8-9:

  • Four swim sessions (14km)
  • Three bike sessions (200km)
  • Four run sessions (45km)
  • Two strength and conditioning session (two hours)
  • One session therapy session at DISC Dubai
  • Two-three hours of stretching and self-maintenance of the body

ITU Abu Dhabi World Triathlon

For more information go to www.abudhabi.triathlon.org.

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

THE CLOWN OF GAZA

Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah 

Starring: Alaa Meqdad

Rating: 4/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE BIO

Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979

Education: UAE University, Al Ain

Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6

Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma

Favourite book: Science and geology

Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC

Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HyveGeo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abdulaziz%20bin%20Redha%2C%20Dr%20Samsurin%20Welch%2C%20Eva%20Morales%20and%20Dr%20Harjit%20Singh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECambridge%20and%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESustainability%20%26amp%3B%20Environment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24200%2C000%20plus%20undisclosed%20grant%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVenture%20capital%20and%20government%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
  • Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

The biog

Favourite films: Casablanca and Lawrence of Arabia

Favourite books: Start with Why by Simon Sinek and Good to be Great by Jim Collins

Favourite dish: Grilled fish

Inspiration: Sheikh Zayed's visionary leadership taught me to embrace new challenges.

WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Power: 510hp at 9,000rpm
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Price: From Dh801,800
GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

Updated: October 18, 2023, 5:14 AM`