Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
July 23, 2023
The various meetings held in the Arab Gulf last week represent a qualitative leap towards a new era of self-security and collective security for the region and the world.
From the visits made by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to the summit involving GCC leaders and those of the five Central Asian countries, attention is being given to the Gulf’s vision on security matters and how to shape them locally and regionally.
This new and significant development is not only crucial for the GCC, but also for security relations between its member states and their traditional allies, as well as security relations with countries that have recently entered into strategic relations with the Gulf region, such as China and Russia.
Equally important, the Arab Gulf countries have taken it upon themselves to deal with their concerns regarding Iran and Turkey, and they are working to solve their problems independently.
The concept of collective security has changed since the Ukraine war began, with international security no longer the fundamental pillar of international relations, especially after the globalisation of Nato and its expansion into Asia.
The blocs that emerged during the Cold War, such as the Non-Aligned Movement, have faded away (although G7 remains a cohesive entity). The Brics grouping had initially emerged as a challenge to the West, but its aspirations to become an alternative economic and security bloc that could lead on international security have not proved to be realistic. The G20 has had troubles due to irreconcilable differences among its members over the war in Ukraine.
As the war in Ukraine approaches the 500-day mark, 'The National' looks back at the conflict. All photos: AP
Ukrainian soldiers cover their ears to protect from Russian tank shelling in a shelter on the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region in July
A cemetery in evening sunlight near Lviv in July
Flooded streets in Kherson in June after the walls of the Kakhovka dam collapsed
Tetiana with her pets, Tsatsa and Chunya, in her house that was flooded when the Kakhovka dam in Kherson was breached
Young cadets sing the national anthem during a graduation ceremony at a cadet lyceum in Kyiv in June
Bakhmut in April, the site of the heaviest battles in the Donetsk region
A message on a mirror reads 'Ukraine will prevail' in a badly damaged school in Kharkiv in February
Ukrainian servicemen in position close to the border with Belarus in February
Hospital staff in Kherson with orphaned children at the regional hospital maternity ward in November 2022
A sniper unit aims at Russian positions in the Kherson region during an operation in November 2022
Ukrainian artillerymen fire at Russian positions near Bakhmut in November 2022
A Ukrainian serviceman near Oskil village in October 2022
Funeral workers carry the coffin of an unidentified civilian who died in the Bucha community during the Russian occupation period in February-March 2022
Cadets practise with gas masks in a bomb shelter on the first day of school at a cadet lyceum in Kyiv, Ukraine, in September
A young girl with her dog waves goodbye to her grandparents from an evacuation train leaving Pokrovsk in August 2022
A child looks up at a building destroyed during attacks in Irpin in May 2022
An elderly patient boards a medical evacuation train in Pokrovsk in May 2022
Nila Zelinska holds a doll belonging to her granddaughter that she found in her destroyed house in Potashnya, on the outskirts of Kyiv, in May 2022
Residents shelter in the city subway of Kharkiv in May 2022
Destroyed Russian tanks in Bucha, April 2022
A family fleeing the village of Ruska Lozova in April 2022 arrive in their shrapnel-riddled car at a screening point in Kharkiv
Smoke fills the air after shelling in Odesa in April
Yehor, 7, with a wooden toy rifle next to destroyed Russian military vehicles near Chernihiv in April 2022
Security Service of Ukraine servicemen enter a building during an operation to arrest suspected Russian collaborators in Kharkiv in April 2022
A Ukrainian soldier during a pick-up game of football in Irpin in April 2022
The partially abandoned town of Chernobyl in April 2022
Ruslan Mishanin, 36, bids farewell to his nine-year-old daughter as the train with his family leaves Odesa for Poland in April
Halyna Falko, 52, talks to reporters in March 2022 while looking at the destruction caused to her house near Brovary after a Russian attack
Anti-tank barricades on a street in preparation for a possible Russian offensive in Odesa in March 2022
A man recovering items from a burning shop after a Russian attack in Kharkiv in March 2022
Ukrainians under a destroyed bridge as they as they cross the Irpin river on the outskirts of Kyiv in March 2022
The Ukraine conflict has provided an opportunity for regional blocs to reinvent themselves, or at least hasten further integration
Nato has become perhaps the most important military alliance in the world, with the Ukraine war serving to reinforce its technological and strategic superiority. The conflict appears to have provided an opportunity for American and European defence industries to battle-test their weapons and military technology for further development.
It has also provided an opportunity for regional blocs to reinvent themselves, or at least hasten further integration. A strategic vision, for instance, is emerging among GCC countries that includes a multi-layered and multi-dimensional regional security concept.
To be clear, the grouping is not inclined to ally with China or Russia in opposition to Nato’s globalisation. In fact, there are no indications that Nato intends to globalise in the direction of the Gulf, nor are the GCC countries ready to join an alliance against Russia and China.
Nato’s globalisation might be a cause for concern in China and Russia because of their inability to respond in kind.
Russia cannot establish a bloc on the lines of the now-defunct Warsaw Pact. And while China might be capable of mounting a military response to Nato’s globalisation, particularly in the South China Sea, it cannot create and scale up a bloc like it. This is important, and it is a matter that the GCC countries are taking into account when making their own security choices.
There used to be a belief that Brics could counter Nato, and some countries, including in the Gulf, had expressed an interest in joining it. But the Ukrainian conflict has put the grouping’s rise on hold, even though a summit is scheduled to take place in South Africa next month.
The most significant phase of Brics’s political solidarity had emerged at the UN when these countries co-ordinated their positions against Nato’s military operations in Libya. It had taken similarly unanimous positions on other issues, including the Syrian civil war – sometimes even opposing positions taken by the Gulf countries – although things have changed since, with both groupings’ positions on various issues more aligned today.
An F-16 fighter jet takes off during a Nato military exercise in Spangdahlem, Germany last month. Reuters
The GCC’s pragmatism has liberated it from constraining policies, as it has charted a new course to address disagreements without abandoning core principles. An example of this can be seen in its member states’ improving relations with Turkey in recent months.
The Jeddah summit involving the Central Asian republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan is also a testament to the GCC countries’ long-term strategic thinking regarding their relationship with the rest of the world.
These former Soviet republics were once in the Soviet and later Russian sphere of influence, but given their significance, they were never far off the radar of the interests of the US and Iran. The Jeddah summit came at an opportune time, and was perhaps possible to convene due to Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukrainian war.
At the summit, the leaders addressed all aspects of economic, political and security co-operation to enhance stability in Central Asia, given its geopolitical and strategic importance and its vast natural resources. The summit also underscored the importance of fighting religious extremism and various forms of violence, boldly emphasising their identity as modern and moderate Islamic countries.
The geopolitical landscape is undergoing almost daily changes. The Arab Gulf countries are carefully assessing their options, observing developments among major powers, and pursuing their own programmes and priorities. They are fully aware of the bigger picture and are receptive to it. They are not willing to get caught in great-power competitions but rather are reading the evolution of their alliances and challenges carefully.
Not long ago, there was a simpler equation between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union. Today, it is not merely a matter of America versus China. Instead, we are in a phase in which regional players are not working to replace great powers but, rather, are seeking to take their rightful spots in the new concept of global security.
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Khalifa Mubarak (24) An accomplished centre-back, the Al Nasr defender’s progress has been hampered in the past by injury. With not many options in central defence, he would bolster what can be a problem area.
Ali Salmeen (22) Has been superb at the heart of Al Wasl’s midfield these past two seasons, with the Dubai club flourishing under manager Rodolfo Arrubarrena. Would add workrate and composure to the centre of the park.
Mohammed Jamal (23) Enjoyed a stellar 2016/17 Arabian Gulf League campaign, proving integral to Al Jazira as the capital club sealed the championship for only a second time. A tenacious and disciplined central midfielder.
Khalfan Mubarak (22) One of the most exciting players in the UAE, the Al Jazira playmaker has been likened in style to Omar Abdulrahman. Has minimal international experience already, but there should be much more to come.
Jassim Yaqoub (20) Another incredibly exciting prospect, the Al Nasr winger is becoming a regular contributor at club level. Pacey, direct and with an eye for goal, he would provide the team’s attack an extra dimension.
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
