Moscow, it seems, believed that the war would help Russia in mobilising its allies into forming an anti-western bloc. Such a thing has failed to materialise. Worse, from the Kremlin's viewpoint, the West has broadly stood together and applied some of the most stringent sanctions that, within days, have crippled the Russian economy.
A wedge has emerged between Russia and its ally Iran, with the Ukraine war having an impact on the talks being held in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between the global powers and Tehran. Until recently, Moscow was the main advocate of Iranian interests in Vienna. Today, Tehran is reportedly irked by Moscow's move to link the war to the negotiations, which Iran wants to conclude as quickly as possible so that western powers lift their sanctions on its economy.
The Ukraine crisis has added a vital element to the equation: Iran's oil and gas, which could serve as additional resources in the international markets after the US banned its oil and gas imports from Moscow. The Biden administration has initiated talks with Iran in this regard, with the latter's response being that it is ready to export its resources as soon as the aforementioned sanctions are lifted. It is, effectively, calling on Washington to conclude the Vienna talks quickly.
The Ukraine crisis could lead to a reset in US-Gulf relations
The Biden administration as well as governments in key European countries, too, are seeking to seal the deal with Iran. The former, because it needs a victory before this year's midterm election; the latter, because it seeks alternative energy suppliers as it attempts to wean itself from Russian hydrocarbons.
Yet, European countries aren't speaking with one voice on the matter. Germany, Hungary, Italy and the Netherlands are among those that are heavily reliant on Russian energy and for whom it will take months to transition away from Moscow's supplies. The EU, meanwhile, is seeking to reduce reliance on traditional energy sources to one third of the current level by the end of 2022.
While Iran potentially stands to benefit from this move, Russian negotiators are said to have sought a guarantee from the US that it will not sanction Iran in the future; Moscow's thinking seems to be that preventing future sanctions on Iran would help Russia sell its oil through Iran.
It appears that Iran has, for now, determined that its interests lie with the US and Europe, although it is clear it won't forgo its strategic alliance with Russia. This pragmatic approach, Tehran seems to believe, will help its regime to better pursue its strategic objectives.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi, left, and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian shake hands prior to their meeting in Tehran on Saturday. AP Photo
How this affects security in the Middle East, it's too early to tell. It is likelier than not that Iran will seize the opportunity to finance its regional expansionist projects. Logically, a potential pivot to the West should help to curb its destabilising policies in the region. But it is possible that the Iranian regime and the Biden administration will sign accords that end up legitimising Tehran's gains in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
China, Russia's other ally, has also hedged rather than going all-out in its support for the Ukraine war. Its equation with Kyiv means that peace in the region is in Beijing's interests. China has made it clear to the West that it does not appreciate Nato's eastward expansion over the past three decades. It has also abstained in the UN votes to deplore Russia's operations inside Ukraine, but it has not thrown its wholehearted support behind Moscow either. And it's unlikely it will risk being sanctioned by the West for the sake of showing solidarity with Russia.
Even Venezuela, which for years has pushed back against American influence in South America, is now responding positively to recent US efforts to build ties. With the Biden administration eyeing Venezuela's large energy reserves, it might consider lifting sanctions on Caracas as well as ending its international isolation.
The US isn't just reaching out to its so-called adversaries for solidarity and energy. The Biden administration is attempting to improve tense relations with Washington's allies in the Gulf, too.
US-Gulf relations have been strained slightly by the current administration's policies in the Middle East, including its going out of the way to reset its equation with Iran, which poses a security threat to the region at large, and its decision to remove Yemen's Houthi rebels from its terror list last year. While the US is considering putting them back on the list following the Houthis' attacks on Abu Dhabi earlier this year, no action has yet been taken.
But the Ukraine crisis could lead to a reset in relations, especially bearing in mind that the Gulf states have deepened their respective ties with China and Russia in recent years. A reset, together with an increase in oil prices, could further increase these countries' influence in international decision-making process. They are already responding to the Ukraine war and its fall-out with great maturity and pragmatism – and are, therefore, likely to consider renewing their respective bilateral relations with the US.
Even a few weeks ago, few could have predicted that the world order would be reshaped in so drastic a manner so quickly. But with the war unlikely to end anytime soon, as Russian forces continue to double down inside Ukraine, we can expect still more twists in the tale.
Winner Dubai Love, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
7.40pm Dubai Dash Listed $175,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Equilateral, James Doyle, Charles Hills.
8.15pm Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions $100,000 (D) 1.900m
Winner Laser Show, Kevin Stott, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Al Fahidi Fort Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Glorious Journey, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner George Villiers, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
HAEMOGLOBIN DISORDERS EXPLAINED
Thalassaemia is part of a family of genetic conditions affecting the blood known as haemoglobin disorders.
Haemoglobin is a substance in the red blood cells that carries oxygen and a lack of it triggers anemia, leaving patients very weak, short of breath and pale.
The most severe type of the condition is typically inherited when both parents are carriers. Those patients often require regular blood transfusions - about 450 of the UAE's 2,000 thalassaemia patients - though frequent transfusions can lead to too much iron in the body and heart and liver problems.
The condition mainly affects people of Mediterranean, South Asian, South-East Asian and Middle Eastern origin. Saudi Arabia recorded 45,892 cases of carriers between 2004 and 2014.
A World Health Organisation study estimated that globally there are at least 950,000 'new carrier couples' every year and annually there are 1.33 million at-risk pregnancies.
Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
