This week’s terrorist attack on a military hospital in Kabul raises serious concerns about the ability of the newly installed Taliban regime to curb the activities of Islamist militant groups active in Afghanistan.
Since seizing power in August, senior Taliban commanders have stressed their commitment to tackling Islamist militant groups such as ISIS, and their determination to prevent the country from becoming a safe haven for terror groups.
Yet, with the new regime struggling to assert its authority over the entire country, a wave of recent terror attacks has highlighted the threat posed by ISIS-K, an Afghan offshoot of ISIS which has deep ideological differences with the Taliban.
ISIS-K has been accused of mounting a series of suicide bomb attacks, including at the Kabul airport and at two Shiite mosques, as well as assaults on Taliban convoys, which have killed hundreds, and there are fears that ISIS-K will intensify its campaign of violence as it tries to prevent the Taliban from consolidating their grip on Afghanistan.
There are fears that the Taliban's position on issues such as women's education is driving more conservative fighters to terrorist groups such as ISIS-K. EPA
In the latest attack, at least 20 people were killed and dozens wounded when militants stormed Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan military hospital in the capital. Witnesses said a suicide bomber blasted his way through the gates of the compound before gunmen rushed through the breach, firing on patients and staff as they tried to flee. Taliban security forces killed the attackers after a lengthy gun battle.
There are now mounting concerns that support for the militant group is growing throughout Afghanistan because its more hardline stance is proving attractive to disgruntled Taliban fighters.
Some more conservative supporters of the Taliban have been dismayed at their reluctance to impose tougher restrictions on women, as well as their attempts to establish international legitimacy by making diplomatic advances to countries such as the US, China and Russia.
Faced with a collapsing economy, in part caused by the withdrawal of Western aid, the Taliban are desperate to demonstrate that they are a more moderate organisation from the uncompromising Taliban administration that ran the country in the 1990s. By adopting a supposedly less hardline approach to sensitive social issues, such as female education, the Taliban hope to persuade foreign donors to resume their contacts with Kabul, a move that would help ease economic difficulties.
This approach risks alienating more conservative-minded supporters, with the result that many are reported to have pledged allegiance to groups like ISIS-K, which espouse a more uncompromising agenda. The group, which is said to have access to significant financial reserves, is gaining in strength because it is able to recruit new fighters from desperate civilians who are easily lured to its ranks by the promise of a salary as the Afghan economy crumbles.
Western security officials have also expressed concern about reports that the organisation is gaining strength by recruiting members of elite Afghan military units and intelligence agents who previously worked with the US-led coalition, but now feel abandoned following last August’s withdrawal of foreign forces.
People view the damage inside a mosque following a bombing in Kunduz, northern Afghanistan, on Friday. All photos: AP Photo / Abdullah Sahil
The powerful explosion caused several casualties, witnesses and the Taliban's spokesman said.
A man walks down the mosque's blood-stained steps following the bombing.
People carry a body from inside the mosque.
The devastation was all to clear to see.
As the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week, Taliban leaders claim the number of defectors joining the terrorist group is relatively small. The concern, though, is that these new recruits bring critical expertise in intelligence-gathering and warfare techniques, potentially strengthening the extremist organisation’s ability to contest Taliban supremacy. It has also enabled ISIS-K to expand into new territory from its stronghold in the eastern province of Nangarhar.
Many of those opting to join the ranks of ISIS-K believe they have no option other than to align themselves with the militants. Abandoned by their erstwhile American protectors, many have been forced into hiding as the Taliban hunts down members of the former regime of President Ashraf Ghani.
A number of former Afghan security and intelligence officials have been kidnapped and killed by the Taliban, while their families have been threatened, with the result that some have decided their best chance of survival is to throw their lot in with ISIS-K rather than find themselves at the mercy of the Taliban.
It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of former Afghan republic intelligence officers, soldiers and police personnel are unemployed and afraid for their lives despite pledges of amnesty from the Taliban. Only a fraction of them, mostly in the National Directorate of Security, have returned to work under Taliban supervision. Like nearly all other Afghan government employees, they haven’t been paid for months.
There are fears that, just as happened in Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein when hundreds of thousands of regime loyalists lost their jobs, disenchanted former members of Afghanistan’s intelligence and security establishment will now side with Islamist militant groups.
These reports will increase pressure on President Joe Biden over his controversial decision to end Washington’s two-decade military involvement in Afghanistan.
The chaotic nature of the withdrawal after the Taliban seized control of the country resulted in hundreds of US civilians left behind, along with thousands of Afghan staff who had worked with Nato forces and were targeted by the Taliban.
ISIS-K demonstrated the mounting threat it posed during the evacuation by carrying out a devastating suicide attack on the crowds at Kabul airport that killed 13 US service personnel and about 90 Afghan civilians.
Mr Biden attempted to justify the withdrawal by claiming that terrorist groups were no longer in a position to use Afghanistan as a safe haven to threaten the US. But this assessment now lacks credibility given the resurgence of groups like ISIS-K and Al Qaeda since the Taliban seized control.
The growing potency of groups like ISIS-K was confirmed last week by Colin Kahl, Mr Biden’s undersecretary of defence for policy, who told the Senate armed services committee that Isis-K could develop the capability to launch attacks outside Afghanistan within a year, and admitted: “We actually are fairly certain they have the intention to do so.”
And if groups like ISIS-K achieve this aim, then Mr Biden’s withdrawal strategy will be seen as an act of extreme folly, one that could have disastrous consequences for his presidency.
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David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
New central waste facility on site at expo Dubai South area to handle estimated 173 tonne of waste generated daily by millions of visitors
Recyclables such as plastic, paper, glass will be collected from bins on the expo site and taken to the new expo Central Waste Facility on site
Organic waste will be processed at the new onsite Central Waste Facility, treated and converted into compost to be re-used to green the expo area
Of 173 tonnes of waste daily, an estimated 39 per cent will be recyclables, 48 per cent organic waste and 13 per cent general waste.
About 147 tonnes will be recycled and converted to new products at another existing facility in Ras Al Khor
Recycling at Ras Al Khor unit:
Plastic items to be converted to plastic bags and recycled
Paper pulp moulded products such as cup carriers, egg trays, seed pots, and food packaging trays
Glass waste into bowls, lights, candle holders, serving trays and coasters
Aim is for 85 per cent of waste from the site to be diverted from landfill
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Look north
BBC business reporters, like a new raft of government officials, are being removed from the national and international hub of London and surely the quality of their work must suffer.
