Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based academic, columnist and author
October 04, 2021
One thing we've learned about populists in recent years is that it’s best to take their words seriously, but not literally. With Rodrigo Duterte, however, it is best to take his words seriously, and at times also literally. For example, the Philippine president has over the past five years overseen a drug war that's been as bloody as he had warned it would be during his 2016 presidential campaign.
But given his flair for the dramatic, Mr Duterte can be rhetorically playful and sometimes even self-indulgent with facts. Capturing headlines with click-bait comments is second nature to populists like Mr Duterte. It's precisely why some observers have been circumspect about his bolt-from-the-blue announcement this week to retire from politics after he steps down next year. After all, this is the same person who once said he would retire at the end of his term as a city mayor, only to change his mind at the 11th hour.
Mr Duterte also has strong motivations to remain in government, given his concerns about a potential prosecution by the International Criminal Court. He may also be mindful of possible blowback over his perceived mismanagement of the pandemic, with the Philippines posting one of Asia's highest Covid-19 infection rates and deepest economic recessions.
Nevertheless, there are compelling reasons to believe Mr Duterte really is entering his twilight months in politics, at least as an elected official.
Manny Pacquiao, the Philippine boxer turned statesman, is among a host of ambitious and well-funded candidates running for president. AFP
Amid his declining popularity and widespread opposition to his original plan to run for vice president next year, he is instead set to mobilise support for his anointed successors. His daughter, Sara Duterte, and lifelong aide, Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, are expected to run for the presidency and vice presidency respectively. Mr Duterte's suspected aim to retain power through proxies could, however, face headwinds; Mr Duterte's rivals, including former allies, are formidable.
What a difference a few months can make in politics.
In June, a potential “Duterte-Duterte” tandem was seen as almost unbeatable in the 2022 election, with Sara Duterte, currently mayor of Davao City, holding a commanding lead in the polls.
At the time, Mr Duterte was the top choice for the vice presidency.
It is worth mentioning that unlike in the US, where the presidential and vice presidential candidates run on single ticket, the Philippines has separate elections for the top two offices. This way, the country's elite determined decades ago, most prized offices and the election spoils could be shared by competing parties.
However, it soon became clear that Mr Duterte preferred a “tandemocracy”, whereby he would run for vice president after the end of his presidency and Mr Go would run to take his place in the top job. That enraged Sara Duterte, who began calling her father out over it in public.
Infighting between the Dutertes alienated many of their supporters, who began to gravitate towards other likeminded contenders. Former allies such as Manny Pacquiao, the boxer turned statesman, revolted against Mr Duterte. Mr Pacquiao recently announced his own bid to run for president.
The result of all this has been infighting within the ruling party that eventually splintered it into multiple factions and undercut its advantage.
Sara Duterte, Davao City Mayor and daughter of Rodrigo Duterte, is considering a presidential run. Reuters
What a difference a few months can make in politics
To make matters worse, a series of corruption scandals have rocked the Duterte administration, which was elected on an anti-corruption platform. Sensing an opening ahead of this election season, Mr Duterte's critics and rivals have begun scoring political points. Manila Mayor Isko Moreno, a one-time Duterte ally, accused the government of plundering scarce resources amid a raging pandemic, calling it a “plundemic”.
Although he is still popular, Mr Duterte’s approval ratings have suffered a steep decline in recent months, dropping by 21 per cent between last November and June. A vast majority of Filipinos opposed his initial plans to run next year. According to one poll, around 60 per cent of them – including a majority of potential voters from Mr Duterte’s home island of Mindanao – believe that his vice presidential bid “violates the intention of the Constitution, which should first be amended before he may run for office again".
They have a point. After the collapse of the Marcos dictatorship in 1986, the Philippines had introduced strict provisions to curtail the power of presidency, confining it to a single six-year term. And Mr Duterte’s intention to run has prompted some experts to suggest that it would violate those constitutional restrictions by providing a "back door" to the presidency, especially if an anointed successor were to win the top job.
Mr Duterte seems to have read the writing on the wall. Over the weekend, the president conceded that the “overwhelming sentiment of the Filipinos is that I’m not qualified [to be vice president], and it would be a violation of the constitution".
While announcing his retirement plans, Mr Duterte threw his weight behind the idea of his daughter and Mr Go running on a single ticket. And yet, even this goal is far from an assured success. Latest surveys show Sara Duterte's chances have declined significantly; she is now virtually tied with her two main rivals, Mr Moreno and former senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Mr Pacquiao is not far behind either.
To be fair, Sara Duterte is known for her independent streak and a more inclusive, multi-stakeholder approach to governance in contrast to her more authoritarian father. But should she choose to run – which we may not know before November 15, the final deadline for candidates – she will be up against a host of ambitious, charismatic and well-funded rivals who will paint her as her father’s proxy.
In what is likely to be a high-stakes election next year, the presidential daughter will almost certainly stand at the receiving end of all criticisms for her father’s shortcomings.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Goalkeepers: Ibrahim Alma, Mahmoud Al Youssef, Ahmad Madania. Defenders: Ahmad Al Salih, Moayad Ajan, Jehad Al Baour, Omar Midani, Amro Jenyat, Hussein Jwayed, Nadim Sabagh, Abdul Malek Anezan. Midfielders: Mahmoud Al Mawas, Mohammed Osman, Osama Omari, Tamer Haj Mohamad, Ahmad Ashkar, Youssef Kalfa, Zaher Midani, Khaled Al Mobayed, Fahd Youssef. Forwards: Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian.
Saturday's results
Brighton 1-1 Leicester City
Everton 1-0 Cardiff City
Manchester United 0-0 Crystal Palace
Watford 0-3 Liverpool
West Ham United 0-4 Manchester City
Overview
Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal, Oman, United States tri-series, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu
Fixtures
Wednesday February 5, Oman v Nepal
Thursday, February 6, Oman v United States
Saturday, February 8, United States v Nepal
Sunday, February 9, Oman v Nepal
Tuesday, February 11, Oman v United States
Wednesday, February 12, United States v Nepal
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Red flags
Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
All matches in Bulawayo Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
