As the situation in Syria unfolds, it seems to be moving towards the establishment of a number of quasi-autonomous "statelets", commentator Georges Semaan said in the pan-Arab daily Al Hayat.
“The Syrian regime will not fall tomorrow”, he declared. “Its continuous decline keeps confusing those who seek a settlement preserving what remains of the structures of the state, particularly the military.
“Many players have bet on the military as a necessary structure to achieve two objectives: to combat terrorist movements and maintain civil peace among various groups.”
Semaan said the dynamic imposed by the latest opposition gains has “eliminated all hopes for the survival of the regime” and precipitated the disintegration of the country.
He noted that this had already happened in Iraq, where the Kurds are living in their own territory awaiting the right moment to declare their independence, and that other groups are dividing the remaining provinces among various Sunni and Shia groups.
“Syria will fare no better,” Semaan said. “It shall no longer be the throbbing heart of Arab nationalism. In the north and in the east, Kurds are working to join up their territories so as to secure them – albeit at the expense of other parties – in view of establishing a Western Kurdistan along the lines of its eastern neighbour.”
He said that the Alawites now were waging their final battles to protect their vital regions.
Semaan noted several factors behind the decline of the regime’s forces. The first is the exhaustion felt by the army and its high losses, especially on the southern front. The second is that the regime is convinced that it must channel all its energy towards defending areas that are essential to its survival. Persistence in this will create the nucleus of a future Alawite state, but not keep Syria together, the writer observed.
However, it is too early to speak of final settlements. He said that the Levant would mostly remain without states or central armies. “But the final borders that separate social, religious, sectarian and ethnic groups have yet to materialise,” he said.
Semaan said Turkey, Israel and Iran could now be at ease, because an army whose power they had long feared had been largely defeated.
“The situation today is limited to factional armies and militias, whose mission is to merely preserve the borders of statelets,” he concluded.
In the pan-Arab Asharq Al Awsat, columnist Mustapha Fahs wrote that "in the language of the defenders of the regime, Bashar Al Assad holds a position that cannot be compromised and all sacrifices must be made for his survival".
Fahs said that those who have boldly defended Mr Al Assad have done so because they know that he is the top of the pyramid in a security and military system that are “intrinsically interdependent”. Only Mr Al Assad’s resilience has prevented its collapse so far, the writer said.
These defenders are facing a dilemma following recent developments that have turned the tide against Mr Al Assad. If they wait until the pyramid collapses from the top, they will tumble in its wake, he concluded.
* Translated by Carla Mirza
cmirza@thenational.ae
