All being well, by midnight tonight, there should be a cessation of hostilities between the Syrian regime and the opposition, perhaps for as long as two weeks. The truce has been a long time coming and even the US president has expressed only cautious hope that it will hold. If it does, it would be a much-needed reprieve for many Syrians, and a positive step.
Behind the scenes, though – or rather in full view of the world, though few are paying attention – the Assad regime is preparing for a prolonged war.
The first expression of that came from Bashar Al Assad himself, who said two weeks ago he intended to re-establish control across the entire country – a recipe for an extended war.
The second hint came just days ago, when Syria announced it would hold parliamentary elections in April. The last round of parliamentary elections took place in 2012, having been delayed by the start of the revolution.
As is often, but not always the case, holding elections is an important sign of stability and normality. By showing that the regime could hold an election at such a difficult time, it claimed it was still in control. Mr Al Assad intends to make the same case now. But there was nothing normal about 2012, as there is nothing normal today.
There is another element to the parliamentary plan. As in 2012, the regime’s Baath Party will certainly take the lion’s share of seats. But there will be room, as there was last time, for “approved” opposition figures. Through the parliament, which the regime will seek to portray as the voice of the people, the regime can pretend it intends to bring in as many voices as possible from what it will call the opposition. That will allow it to put forward a figleaf of opposition, while tarring all the real opposition – who are, of necessity, out of the country – with the label of either supporting terrorism or being disconnected exiles.
The truce is necessary. The war has gone on too long. But a sham election will not solve the genuine need for comprehensive solution – it will only add fuel to the fire of Syria’s war.