Arab leaders cautiously welcomed the P5+1 framework with Iran. The Arab press, on the other hand, was not so circumspect. Criticism ranged from the fanciful (“the US is ushering in a new US-Iranian order” to dominate regional affairs) to the anxious (with the end of sanctions Iran will have greater resources to pursue its troubling agenda in the region).
While I have concerns with how the process evolved, I strongly support the deal. Moving forward, if the US plays it right and listens carefully to what its Arab partners are saying, the deal can open the door to constructive discussions that will enhance the prospects for peace and stability across the region.
My concerns are the lessons I hope the US will learn as it moves to the next stage. The next few months will involve rounds of tough private negotiations, coupled with public posturing. All the while, critics will be having a field day trying to upend the process. We have already heard from the Israelis who, in their continuing efforts to scuttle the deal, have combined warnings of imminent Armageddon with the insistence that the final arrangement include a number of “poison pills”. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded that Iran recognise Israel as a “Jewish state”.
But Arab leaders, even those who have deep distrust of Iran’s intentions, have tempered their reaction to the deal. One Arab official with whom I spoke suggested that it was pointless to dwell on the past, unless it was to learn lessons from the process.
The US allies in the Gulf have long been concerned about Iran’s regional ambitions and its meddlesomeness in the region. Some western commentators cavalierly dismiss this as nothing more than the age-old Sunni-Shia rivalry. In fact, the problem is neither theological, nor is it age-old. It is a political struggle, pure and simple.
As Arabs see it, Iran has operated as a revolutionary regime since 1979, seeking to export its theocratic model of governance and its ideology of resistance to the West. As such, Iran has fomented unrest and has sought regional dominance.
In response, the Gulf Arab states joined forces in a Gulf Cooperation Council and have made arrangements with the US to enhance their individual and collective security.
Their people’s frustration with US support for Israel and the devastation in Iraq grew and Arab leaders were forced to confront public dissatisfaction with their close ties to the US. And so one can imagine the bind in which Arab leaders have found themselves when they see the US negotiating in secret with Iran after destabilising Iraq and leaving it open to Iranian influence and then abandoning Syria.
When the GCC leaders come to Washington next month, the most important task facing the Obama administration is to rebuild trust. If the US wants to see the Arab states as allies, it must treat them as such.
A good place to begin would be for the US to make clear that it understands the dangers that Iran poses in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. A new plan of action must be laid out for Iraq that doesn’t allow for US air power to pave the way for Iranian-backed militia to take over from ISIL. Discussions should then move on to the steps that need to be taken to achieve negotiated solutions in Syria and Yemen.
Finally, Barack Obama will have to demonstrate that he understands the relationship between the external and internal challenges facing each of the Gulf Arab countries. In a recent interview with The New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, Mr Obama noted that the US would work with its “Sunni allies” to help secure their defence needs, but he went on to note that “the biggest threats that they face may not be coming from Iran invading. It’s going to be from dissatisfaction inside their own countries”.
Of course, many of these states faces internal challenges. And they are addressing them by confronting extremism and reforming their institutions and by working to create educational and employment opportunities. In each of these areas, US support can be helpful. But if the US were to attempt to meddle in their internal affairs, it will neither be helpful nor welcomed.
Mr Obama needs to tread carefully and speak even more carefully. As our most recent polling demonstrates, Arab attitudes to the US remain deeply conflicted. Arabs want ties with the US, but they don’t trust America’s intentions and remain profoundly disturbed by its policies towards Israel, Iraq and Syria.
The nuclear deal establishes that when the US, together with other powers, use all of the political and diplomatic tools available to them, negotiations can yield results.
Moving forward, the US should demonstrate that it can use those same tools to help rein in Iran’s regional ambitions. And it should do so with Arabs as partners in this process, not as mere bystanders.
James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute
On Twitter: @aaiusa
