The Palestinian issue may have never been so utterly eclipsed. Even much Arab attention has shifted to larger and more apparently “urgent” problems such as the wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya. The peace process with Israel has utterly collapsed. Even the United States appears to have moved on, with the two-state solution seemingly tossed aside like a banana peel, now that it no longer interests Israel’s government.
Yet, counterintuitively, now is precisely the time when everyone who is serious needs to pay the closest attention to what is going on between Israel and the Palestinians. What will happen in the medium-term is exactly being determined by what is happening and not happening, so quietly and almost behind the scenes, in the immediate context.
Headlines are still generated, of course. Stabbings and other apparently random acts of Palestinian violence against Israelis, and violent attacks against Palestinians by Israelis, especially settlers, or the Israeli military, get reported by the international media.
But such dramatic snippets, sheared of their context, as if occurring in a vacuum or without any broader narrative or interpretive structure, except the most tiresome clichés and prejudices in favour of one party or the other, are not only meaningless, they are actually misleading. That’s because they tend to reinforce preconceived notions that are, almost invariably, little more than emotional fairy tales designed to make people feel better or to rationalise what is otherwise indefensible.
The grim truth is that what is happening is almost certainly the gestation of an enormous explosion of violence, far worse than anything we have seen in the history of this conflict. When it finally does erupt, it will be too late to do anything about it. No one will be able to control or reverse it.
Such an explosion might be “planned” by some group or other, but if an attempt to generate it actually succeeds, that will be a coincidence.
What is being nurtured under the current circumstances will be, essentially, an organic phenomenon. The ideological veneer it takes on, from both sides, will have many profound political impacts, but will that not be a causal or determining factor. What is brewing lies far beneath the register of ideology, and is taking place at the level of lived human experiences far beyond rhetoric.
The basic equation has nothing to do with Israeli and Palestinian, or Arab and Jewish, identities or cultures, or religious beliefs or political ideologies. It is a fundamental human equation that transcends all of these. On one side are millions of people who have lived for decades without any kind of citizenship, enfranchisement or political and human rights. On the other side are millions more who are either dismissive or terrified of this reality, or both. Either way, everyone is trapped.
There is no process, formula or mechanism available to alter this equation, even a little, at its fundamentals. Yet, if it persists – and that seems inevitable because there is no mechanism at the moment for generating any positive change – it can only produce one outcome: violence.
It doesn’t matter that most Palestinians either remember the disastrous second intifada, or are exhausted, or are wise enough to see that violence has always been counterproductive. As the wave of violence, mostly by teenagers, indicates, a new generation is emerging that is simply enraged and finds nothing which they can believe in or identify with. Their attitude, even towards Israeli civilians, seems to be “you can always take one with you”.
What is there in the current witches’ brew in Palestine that can prevent this from becoming a normative attitude? What argument and alternative is left to counter it? Trust your leadership? Have faith in diplomacy? Become the change you want to see happen? Everything is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds?
No, the only thing left is a completely rational, completely correct appeal to personal and family interests. Make the most of your life under the current circumstances as best you can, and so on. The problem is, this has no aspect of social and political consciousness, except in the most indirect way. It won’t work.
Violence against civilians is never justifiable or reasonable. But in this situation, reason and justice are not only absent, they have been rendered absurdities, creating a nihilistic vacuum in which brutal self-assertion carries a terrible appeal.
Months ago I argued that the current round of violence would become a “new normal” between Israel and the Palestinians. Sadly, that’s been fully vindicated. What’s crucial to recognise now is that this horrifying “new normal” is almost certainly a mere foretaste of what’s to come.
The status quo, to which Israel clings so desperately, and to which the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, and Hamas have either reconciled themselves, or have no answers for, all but guarantees the unprecedented explosion quietly building up in the pressure cooker of the occupied territories. This is as close to the inevitable as political life gets. The only way to prevent it is to somehow change the equation on the ground before the volcano erupts. Otherwise, we know what to expect.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
On Twitter: @ibishblog
