Despite president Bashar Al Assad’s brutality during the four years of civil war in Syria, Russian president Vladimir Putin has just pledged to continue supporting his regime. This renewed commitment comes as many more analysts than before predict the end of Syria as a single state under Mr Al Assad’s leadership when the dust of war finally settles.
It is still too early to predict what post-conflict Syria will look like but it is increasingly clear that Mr Al Assad’s sway will be at best limited. As such, Russia’s motives in continuing to support him could be cause for concern. Certainly, Moscow has so far chosen the wrong side in Syria but that doesn’t belie the fact that Russia can play a pivotal role in pushing peace forward if it so desires. Some recent developments suggest that there are many different strands in the way Russia is thinking.
Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, accompanied by the Saudi foreign minister and the petroleum minister, met Mr Putin in St Petersburg last month and signed six far-reaching agreements on oil and nuclear energy. These suggest that Moscow is seeking greater cooperation with the Middle East, far beyond Syria. Russia already has long-term deals in place to build or assist with nuclear reactors in Egypt and Turkey.
Ultimately, greater cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia presents an opportunity for Russia to move away from its support for Damascus. This is not going to happen overnight – and Mr Putin’s statements demonstrate that Russia is not giving up on Mr Al Assad just yet – but Moscow is pivoting toward a different role in the region.
This mirrors the United States’s own stated aim to pivot towards east Asia and to decrease its engagement with the Middle East, presumably once a deal over Iran’s nuclear programme is completed. We can ill afford for Russia to get engaged in this region simply in an attempt to steal the Americans’ geopolitical thunder. But given Moscow’s considerable clout in Tehran and Damascus, a Russian leadership that wants genuinely to forge peace would be welcome for the region.
