Here’s a possibility – although not (yet) a confident prediction. The possibility is that the two most successful British political parties of the past 100 years, Labour and the Conservatives, are in such trouble that either or even both could unseat their current leader in a few months.
The leaders – Kemi Badenoch for the Conservatives and Prime Minister Keir Starmer for Labour – are in deep trouble. Both parties are performing badly in opinion polls. Both leaders are blamed, usually anonymously by colleagues, for those miserable poll ratings owing to lacklustre performances and poor leadership. If the May local elections in England as well as contests for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales go badly, it could be the end of Ms Badenoch or Mr Starmer – or both of them.
This seems good news for Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party. It recently hit 30 per cent support in opinion polls, although YouGov’s tracker poll a week ago showed Reform dropping to 24 per cent. Therefore, the only firm prediction for the next few months is how unpredictable British politics may be.
Voters are unhappy and increasing numbers of them may not vote at all. Some may decide to vote for Reform to shake up the apparent failures of Britain’s traditional two-party politics. Mr Farage is certainly good at shaking things up, usually by promising supposedly new ideas to solve old problems. But – and here’s the catch – promising something new is itself the oldest trick in politics. Mr Farage is, in fact, not “new” at all.
The Reform leader first tried to become an MP 30 years ago and then failed seven times. He eventually won a seat in Parliament in 2024 thanks in large part to his favourite hot-button issue – immigration. That year, the UK recorded its highest-ever net immigration figures. Street protests followed. Immigration is still a key issue, but there has been a huge drop in UK net immigration, down from more than 900,000 in 2023 to a little over 200,000, according to the latest Office for National Statistics findings from last year.
Moreover, Mr Farage may be a victim of his own successes in dividing right-wing voters. He has attracted tens of thousands of people to the Reform party. Some are new to politics, but others are very old hands from the traditional British right-wing party, the Conservatives. Many defectors are (in Britain at least) big names who used to be Conservative MPs. At the time of writing, 23 of these have publicly moved to Reform; they include Ann Widdecombe, Nadine Dorries, Lee Anderson, Andrea Jenkyns, Sarah Pochin, Danny Kruger, Jake Berry and others. In the past week, former Conservative ministers Nadhim Zahawi and Robert Jenrick clambered aboard the bandwagon, followed by Conservative MP Andrew Rosindell who jumped on Sunday. More defections are predicted.
But with these successes comes a risk. Mr Farage claims to be shaking up British politics, but how does that square with accepting a load of veteran Conservatives from what can be characterised as previously failed Tory governments? That’s why those May elections could be decisive. Smaller parties – the Liberal Democrats, Greens, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru – all hope to take significant numbers of votes from Labour and the Conservatives in what is a very fickle political climate. Even so, Reform has the greatest ambitions and possibly the biggest chance of success.
Mr Farage has raised expectations through Reform’s strong opinion poll ratings, but that has also drawn much more personal scrutiny, including damaging accusations of a long history of anti-Semitism and racism dating back to his time as a schoolboy. Then there’s the question of competence.
In last May’s elections, Reform won 700 local government seats and took control of a dozen councils, but embracing power and responsibility has not been a great success. Speeches are easy – governing a country or even running a council is difficult. Reform is reported to have lost at least five per cent of their councillors in just six months. Although it is early days, it is difficult to see any Reform council that has significantly changed voters’ lives for the better.
The next few months will be a period of flux in British politics, but the one person who has the most to lose also has the greatest opportunity to recover – Mr Starmer. It’s not unusual for a new prime minister to have a difficult first year or two. Margaret Thatcher, one of the most formidable politicians of the 20th century, famously had mid-term blues until she faced a foreign threat in the shape of the Falklands War with Argentina that Britain won in 1982.
If Mr Starmer wants to stay in Downing Street, he also needs some headline-grabbing success domestically or in foreign policy, perhaps in the economy or in how he handles US President Donald Trump. As Prime Minister, Mr Starmer has the levers of power but has so far failed to use them to impress voters or persuade them that their lives are changing for the better.
May’s elections are therefore crucial. If they go as badly for Labour and the Conservatives as opinion polls suggest, then it may be curtains for Kemi or Keir. Or both.
