When Israel’s legislature, the Knesset, passed its 2025 budget this past week, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu breathed a sigh of relief. Had the budget not been approved by March 31, the Knesset would have disbanded automatically, and new elections would have been called. Polls indicate Mr Netanyahu and his coalition would have decisively lost.
What saved the Prime Minister was his renewed war in Gaza.
The negotiations over a ceasefire in Gaza had resulted in the desertion of one of his coalition partners and the alienation of some members of his own party, putting his government at risk. Once the ceasefire was announced, Mr Netanyahu’s problems grew. His trial on charges of corruption and abuse of his office was once again centre stage, as was his theatrical response to the grilling he received from the prosecutors. Also plaguing him were reports of his government’s failures emanating from the ongoing investigation into the October 7 Hamas attack.
With his coalition haemorrhaging and his personal position weakening, renewing the war in Gaza provided Mr Netanyahu with a way out. His coalition was restored. His budget was passed. He had a distraction from his trial. His cabinet approved his decision to fire the head of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency, who was faulting him for the October 7 attack. And he was able to once again advance his legislative efforts to “reform” what he views as the obstacles presented by Israel’s pesky judiciary.
Compounding Netanyahu’s dilemma were the expectations created once the implementation of the ceasefire agreement began. The world witnessed powerfully moving scenes of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians trekking north to return to their demolished homes and communities in the north of Gaza. Compassion grew for Palestinians as did revulsion for the gratuitous devastation wrought by Israel’s bombardments.
There were other factors that weighed heavily on Netanyahu in this period.
Hamas, as expected, overplayed its hand with disgraceful scenes of bravado during each of the hostage releases. Most likely done out of a need to demonstrate control, this behaviour was stupid and provocative, especially in the face of the enormity of the suffering endured by Gazans. One might reasonably ask Hamas’s leadership: “How many times can you foolishly kick the hornets’ nest before you understand the consequences of your actions?”
Polling by Zogby establishes that Gaza’s Palestinians have long had unfavourable views toward Hamas. Now, many are demonstrating their anger at both Israel and Hamas. But the last thing Mr Netanyahu wants is an alternative Palestinian leadership in Gaza, as that would threaten his continuation of the conflict and his rule.
The ceasefire agreement of January 19 included three phases, the second and third of which were intended to lead to an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war. As the negotiations themselves had already cost Mr Netanyahu coalition partners, he reportedly promised his allies that he would never allow the process to get to phase two. As a result, early in the implementation of phase one, he began seeking an escape, claiming Hamas was violating the terms of the agreement and pressing unacceptable demands that he sought to add to the first phase.
Then came the Arab peace plan to end the conflict. The plan, which would fulfil phase three of the ceasefire agreement, called for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the positioning of an Arab and international peacekeeping force, the establishment of Palestinian governance linked to the Palestinian Authority and a plan to rebuild Gaza. This Arab plan has won broad international support and, if adopted, could even spell the end of Mr Netanyahu’s tenure in office.
In the face of all these challenges, Mr Netanyahu felt compelled to break the ceasefire. The renewed campaign has been a ruthless continuation of genocide. For one month now, Israel has withheld the entry of all aid and medical personnel from the north of Gaza, starving the Palestinians in that area and forcing them to leave. The Israelis have also continued their bombing campaign, taking hundreds more lives. They have retaken areas of Gaza, with some politicians promising to annex them to Israel, and are exploring plans to forcibly evict Palestinians from Gaza to both sabotage any effort to allow for Palestinian governance and facilitate Israel’s conquest and annexation of more of Gaza’s land.
While Mr Netanyahu claims his goal is the elimination of Hamas, the evidence is clear that his real intention is to save himself and his government – and in this he has had a willing accomplice. The Trump administration in the US has supported Israel’s trashing the very ceasefire agreement US President Donald Trump once boasted as his personal diplomatic victory.
And so here we are, a little over two months after the announced ceasefire and Palestinians are once again victims of slaughter and mass starvation. Instead of being an agreement that would lead to an end of the conflict, the ceasefire, as I feared, has turned out to be nothing more than a pause or a cruel ruse that was sacrificed on the altar of Mr Netanyahu’s political survival. There are no good guys to this story, only civilian victims.
