Deterrence not working against Houthis, Yemen's Vice President says

Aidarous Al Zubaidi says existing road map for peace with rebel group no longer viable

Aidarous Al Zubaidi, Vice President of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council. Enas Refaei / The National

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Yemen’s Vice President said on Wednesday that the US strategy of deterring the Iran-backed Houthi rebels from disrupting international shipping in the Red Sea through calibrated strikes was not working.

“For now, we don't think that it has had a big effect on the Houthis,” Aidarous Al Zubaidi, Vice President of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council and head of the Southern Transitional Council, told The National at the UN General Assembly in New York.

Mr Al Zubaidi’s comments come as US special envoy Tim Lenderking warned that Russia might be working to supply the Houthis with weapons in what could be a “game changer” in Yemen’s decade-long civil war.

"It's extremely alarming," Mr Lenderking told The National. "The fact that the Russians would sort of break from what has been a strong consensus within the P5 countries [permanent Security Council members], including China, that there is no military solution, that there can only be a negotiated solution to Yemen, the fact that they would contemplate arming one of the factions here is deeply alarming to us."

Since Israel launched its retaliatory military campaign against Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis have launched attacks on ships on the Red Sea. They have seized vessels and fired missiles at others, sowing fear among shipping companies and causing major disruptions to one of the world’s most important maritime routes.

The rebel group has attacked more than 80 ships with missiles and drones since October. Several ships have been sunk and crew members have been killed in the attacks.

The Houthi rebels have said their attacks are focused on ships tied to Israel and are being carried out in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. They have indicated the attacks will continue until the Gaza war is over.

Mr Al Zubaidi said that a new, more holistic strategy was required to deter the Houthis and protect Red Sea shipping.

“If we want to have an immediate effect or a real deterrence on the Houthis, it should be a joined-up approach, a local approach, joined up with a regional approach and an international approach,” he said.

Yemen's near decade-long civil war began when the Iran-backed Houthis captured the capital Sanaa, removing the internationally recognised government.

The situation in Yemen has been called one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with about a quarter of a million people killed in the conflict, many of them by indirect causes.

The Houthis have used the war in Gaza to bolster their image among Yemenis as a defender of Palestinian rights – something Mr Al Zubaidi said has won them support. But the two issues should be “decoupled” and not conflated, he said.

A year ago, the prospect of ending Yemen’s now decade-long civil war seemed near, with a UN-brokered truce having expired but still holding. The start of the war in Gaza, however, essentially stopped any progress and peace seems to be as elusive as ever.

"The Houthis have really gotten very aggressive," said Mr Lenderking. "Not to say that they were not before, but the focus on adopting the Gaza conflict and using that for what we feel ultimately is a very narrow agenda, and that's caused problems in multiple areas."

He said the way the Houthis have attacked shipping has been difficult to combat: "This kind of wanton and reckless and random attacks on ships is very problematic."

Mr Lenderking called on regional countries affected by the attacks to "press the Houthis" to stop.

In recent weeks, reports have surfaced of the Houthis connecting with Russia, as Moscow considers providing the group with weapons.

As the rebels continue to disrupt shipping routes in the Red Sea, Mr Al Zubaidi believes the possibility for peace is not in sight.

“The escalation on the Red Sea has ramifications on us and the road map to peace that we were supposed to agree on, we can’t proceed with now,” he said. “I don't think the peace deal that was presented is viable any more.”

Mr Lenderking believes the road map is still pertinent but he acknowledged that, given the rebels' actions over the past almost 12 months, it is reasonable to question "whether the Houthis are still a partner for peace".

"I think it's viable because the key parties agreed to it, and it's what we've been working toward and asking for, which is that there be an agreed to path forward, call it a road map, under UN auspices," he said.

"And that road map was the product, again, of a lot of intensive discussion and engagement by Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. The Yemen government agreed to it. "