The perception of crime in the UK is wrong on almost every level, a study suggests.
Research from King’s College London shows that people believe crime is rising when, in fact, it has been falling.
On nearly every measure – including the ethnicity of offenders, the number of crime victims and of police officers – public perceptions are wrong.
The UK, and in particular London, has acquired a reputation for crime, shaped in part by the comments of Donald Trump. The US President said offending in the city had “gone through the roof”, as part of his continuing feud with its mayor, Sadiq Khan.
London has seen a surge in phone thefts in recent years, but on Monday Mr Khan said the city had a homicide rate lower that most US states.
Thirty-seven per cent of people believe murder has risen between 2010 and 2025, but it is down by 20 per cent, according to polling carried out for the King's College's study, titled Wrongful convictions? Misperceptions of crime among the UK public.
About 83 per cent of people think mobile phone theft has risen over the same period when, in fact, it has fallen by around 70 per cent in the UK as a whole, according to the study. Efforts by the Met Police mean mobile phone thefts are also falling in London.
Similarly, 56 per cent think domestic burglary has increased and 62 per cent believe vehicle has risen, when both have fallen by around 50 per cent.
Of the five crime types tested in the study, only shoplifting has actually risen since 2010, by around 70 per cent – and the public gets that one right with 84 per cent saying it has increased.
The public also wrongly assumes that most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority when in reality 64 per cent are white.
Supporters of the right-wing populist Reform UK party are most likely to underestimate the share of people convicted of homicide who are white, telling pollsters it is 30 per cent.
Professor Bobby Duffy, director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London, said the reason for the discrepancy between perception and reality “is rooted in our psychology and in real media, social media and political incentives to play to our concerns”.
“We have a deep negativity bias that tunes us to threat, and a rosy view of the past that makes us assume things were safer in the past than they were.
“When people respond with an inflated measure of crime, they aren't just trying to estimate a reality – they're sending a message about what worries them.”
While not mentioning the US President by name, Mr Khan wrote on X that “the loudest voices online aren't always the most accurate”.
“New data shows our homicide rate is lower than every US state, while murder rates are at record lows,” he said.
“The evidence is clear: our approach to tackling crime and its causes works. It's driving down violence right across the capital.”
