The Gaza war has become a hotbed issue in a crucial UK by-election on Thursday that has descended into accusations of sectarianism and whipping up hatred.
Muslims make up more than a quarter of the 80,000 voters in Gorton and Denton, in a poll that is exceptionally tight between the ruling Labour party, populist-right Reform and leftist Greens.
Every vote is vital as the fallout could impact Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s survival as Labour leader following months of speculation.
The latest opinion polls reinforce the fracturing of British politics, with the centre imploding and voters moving to the far left or right. A survey by Opinium found that the Greens and Labour were on 28 per cent, just one per cent ahead of Reform.
Tactical voting by those anxious to keep Reform out could substantially influence the result, although progressive voters were more likely to switch to Greens than Labour, the poll found.
Ultimately, who becomes the area’s newest MP will probably be down to the Muslim vote. That electorate “will absolutely decide the election”, said Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “They represent a volatile swing vote and Labour was massively taken by surprise by the loss of the Muslim vote in 2024,” Prof Ford added.
The Greens, who have traditionally played a minor role in British politics, are now resurgent and have the real possibility of stealing the formerly safe Labour seat in Manchester.
The Green candidate for MP is Hannah Spencer, who is going after Muslim voters dismayed at Labour’s approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict. In a constituency with a large Pakistani community, she has distributed leaflets in Urdu showing her posing in front of a mosque wearing a keffiyeh and urging voters to “make Labour pay”.
The leaflet also featured newspaper headlines showing the proposal by Nigel Farage’s Reform party to ban visas for Pakistani migrants.
The document states: “Push the falling walls one more time. Labour must be punished for Gaza. Reform must be defeated, and Green must be voted for. Vote for the Green Party for a strong voice for Muslims.”
Ms Spencer has also made a video showing Mr Starmer shaking hands with Narendra Modi. The Hindu nationalist Prime Minister of India is disliked by many Pakistanis, who make up a fifth of the Muslim electorate in Denton.
The imagery also shows Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy shaking hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, before cutting to aerial footage of Gaza’s destruction.
“Politicians aren’t working for us,” Ms Spencer states in Urdu. It has been reported that the video has also been circulated in Bangla and will be broadcast in Arabic and Pashto before Thursday’s vote.
Lucy Powell, Labour's deputy leader, accused the Greens of a “shameful attempt to manipulate the respected Muslim community”.
An unnamed senior UK cabinet minister accused the Greens of “whipping up hatred and deliberately raising the salience of Gaza”, The Times reported.
Another campaign video accused Reform’s candidate, GB News presenter Matt Goodwin, of being someone who would “fuel the flames of Islamophobia” as the area's MP.
Questions have been raised over Mr Goodwin's suitability after he suggested that people born in the UK from an ethnic background should not automatically be considered British.
“It takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody ‘British’,” he said last year.
But in response to Ms Spencer’s comments he accused the Greens of “blatant sectarianism”.
“If you want an MP who will obsess over Gaza, prioritise the Muslim vote, and put some communities before others, then vote Green. But if you want an MP who will prioritise the people of Gorton & Denton, then vote Reform,” he wrote on X.
