The families of migrants who moved to the UK to work have had a greater effect on its workforce than the original visa holders, a new analysis has found.
It shows that work visa policies intended to shape migration’s role in the labour market have had minimal effect, as they only affect a minority of working migrants, according to the Migration Observatory at Oxford University.
The analysis found that rapid growth in the migrant workforce after Brexit was driven primarily by dependants of students and workers, plus those who arrived on other migration routes not directly designed to fill job vacancies but still authorised to work. This is particularly prevalent in industries such as health and care.
While those on long-term work visas drove growth in the migrant workforce in graduate-heavy industries such as finance and IT, their dependants drove growth in other sectors such as construction and retail.
Migration has become a hot-button issue in the UK, with the government struggling to reduce net migration numbers and other political parties vying to control the narrative with increasingly right-wing policies.
Last week, billionaire Manchester United co-owner Jim Ratcliffe claimed the UK had been “colonised” by immigrants, causing the population to soar. Net migration peaked at 944,000 in the 12 months to March 2023 but has fallen to about 200,000 since after tougher rules on work and study were introduced.
Dr Ben Brindle, a researcher at the Migration Observatory and co-author of the report, said: “Debates about migration in the labour market tend to focus on work visas, but this is missing most of the picture. The UK is not unusual in this respect: high shares of migrants in most countries come through family routes. But it does mean that tweaks to visa policy – especially for middle-skilled jobs where many workers come through other routes – are not the main factor driving migration’s impacts.”
As an example, he cited work visas for technicians and other middle-skilled roles that the government currently prioritises because they are crucial to the Industrial Strategy. These roles made up only about 1 per cent of new hires from 2022 to 2024, lower than in other mid- and high-skilled roles.
The report said that of the 3.45 million non-EU citizens who had received visas since Brexit and still had a valid immigration status at the end of 2024, only 17 per cent were main applicants on work visas, according to Home Office data.
“This partly reflects large numbers of international students, many of whom will eventually leave,” it said. “However, many work visa holders leave too, while family members and refugees tend to remain long-term. As a result, the picture does not greatly change even if we examine people who receive settlement. A third of settlement grants in 2024 were to people in the work category when they applied, and this includes partners and children of main applicants.”
The Labour government has committed to linking its skills policy and migration, and will soon require employers recruiting technicians and other middle-skilled workers from overseas to be in an industry with an approved workforce plan.
However, the report warns that increasing the domestically trained workforce does not automatically lead to lower migration, as employers may simply increase the amount of goods and services they produce.
It also points out that poor pay and conditions may make it hard to recruit local workers, and regardless of skill levels, the UK remains an attractive destination for migrants.
Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory and co-author of the report, said: “Around 85 per cent of construction workers were born in the UK, so domestic training and retention are more important for the workforce than migration in the long run.”
Daniel Sandford Smith, director of programmes at the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, said the UK lacks the granular data needed to understand how migration and skills policy affect many middle-skilled roles. For most migrants, reliable information on occupation, skill level and training does not exist.
