A burly soldier in combat fatigues carrying a backpack containing eight AI-enabled drones represents the Ukraine-style vision of war that could extend across Europe.
Pioneer Lorenz Meier estimates that the widespread use of military drones could become a reality as early as late 2027. What makes AI software enabled drones so ripe for use is the introduction of the swarm factor. And that is already being battle tested across Ukraine. “What is the best way to defeat a drone, another drone swarm,” Mr Meier tells The National. “That's where I see the world going, and probably going within the next 18 months.”
Surrounded by the rich black earth of Bavarian farmland, a nondescript German industrial unit is producing drones inspired by the technological legacy of the Ukraine war.
Within weeks of the establishment of a joint venture with a Ukrainian company, Meier's Auterion starts production of a planned 30,000 drones destined for the front line.
A day after the signing on the fringes of this weekend's Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was telling the assembled ministers and security specialists that the country was in talks to establish 10 ventures around Europe.
“Our wall of drones is your wall of drones, our expertise is a part of your security, our ability to stop assaults and Russian sabotage can also be part of your defence,” he said. “Europe needs a real common defence policy.”
For Mr Meier the announcement was a milestone on an 18-year pursuit of a technology that allows drones to operate with a common communications standard. “This is not aspirational,” he said. “It's proven, trusted technology. We develop systems by first proving them in combat and then coming to the governments for contracts.”
In a swarm, each drone makes its own choices, synchronises with those around it, and on the battlefield uses AI guidance kits to lock on to a target before striking it.
The new ventures offer the explosive power of guided missiles at a fraction of the cost, making mass production more achievable. Germany plans to spend hundreds of billions of euros to build the strongest conventional army in Europe.
Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, said all European countries needed to scale up “hard power” describing it as the currency of the age.
“We must be able to deter aggression, and yes, if necessary, we must be ready to fight,” he told the conference.
For Meier, the AI drones are a new variation on well established military operations using commercial technology.
“It's roughly 50-100 times cheaper. That is the real step change that is creating mass and the longer range,” he said after the signing. “It's still a human operator that decides the endpoint and the target and then engages.
“But if the video signal gets disrupted, which happens when you have jammers, it still hits the target, whereas a human pilot would lose the target.”
Mr Meier says his shift into defence provision is motivated by the shifting threat, echoing Mr Starmer's line on hard power. “We must re-establish deterrence that we have lost in the world where suddenly hard power is a deciding factor.”
The evolution of the front line – from a soldier carrying a bag of drones to a full swarm – hints at a future where tanks and fighter jets also serve as offensive and defensive launch platforms.
Meier said the system is appearing on the front line, but it remains new.
“That level of automation is enabling now swarms strikes and much greater density, much more intense drone warfare, and makes it even harder to attack.
“Drones today are very, very powerful defensive weapon. You can't hold territory. You can't seize territory with it easily, but you can stop an assault more and more efficiently.”
A drone wall can be created in a specific location, but Mr Meier is focusing on changing the dynamics across the theatre of battle.
“I think that's a completely new level of option that we didn't have before,” he says. “These drone batteries will be like air defence batteries. I assume that you would have them stationary and maybe for months or years at a time.
“I believe that we will see the convergence of air defence and ground attack the same way as in aviation has converged.”
Mr Zelenskyy spoke in Munich beneath a display that showed the number of drone attacks on Ukraine last month as more than 6,000. Most were Iranian-developed Shahed drones, which mount the same type of strikes that devastated London during the Second World War blitz.
Mr Meier sees the speed of the inceptors quickening and that translating across to all drones. “You don't want your people to be under fire for 10-20 minutes before help arrives – you want to be there in five. Like you need to have a certain speed to intercept the Shahad. Need to have a certain speed to cut down that deployment time.”
As fighter jets and tanks evolved into standard designs and capabilities, Mr Meier predicts a decade of innovation and improvements whitling out and creating drone options. “It's very limited manual right now,” he said. “Where I see the evolution is it's really about the network and the network is king.”
