Climate change is making stormy days in the UAE more common and more intense, according to a new study.
The research, from scientists at Khalifa University and the National Centre of Meteorology, found that there are up to two more stormy days per year now compared to 2000.
This increase is set to continue, the scientists behind the study found by using a combination of satellite data and computer modelling.
In April last year the UAE experienced its most severe rainfall in a single day for 75 years in an event that researchers later said had been made more intense by climate change.
“With global warming, we know that the air is capable of holding more moisture and [this is] therefore fuelling severe convection and extreme rainfall,” said Dr Diana Francis, head of Khalifa University’s Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (Engeos) Laboratory, who is also one of the study's authors.
“So the increasing trend of occurrence means increasing risks of extreme rainfall events. It is not just the occurrence that has increased, but also the intensity.”
The study, Drivers and Trends of Summertime Convection over the South-Eastern Arabian Peninsula, will be published soon in Geophysical Research Letters.
Between 2000 and 2024 the UAE averaged five stormy days per year.
Future floods
“Regarding future trends, by 2100, models project about three to four additional stormy days per summer (May–October) relative to the 2015 baseline,” Dr Francis said.
This means that over the course of the 21st century, there could be a near doubling of the number of stormy days in the country.
In the paper, which focused on weather affecting the UAE and Oman, the researchers said that storms tended to develop over mountainous areas during July and August.
“They are driven mainly by strong daytime heating, moisture arriving from nearby oceans and local wind patterns shaped by the region’s unique terrain,” the researchers wrote.
They said that the storms were also driven by thermal lows – low-pressure systems generated by the heating of the Earth’s surface – over the Arabian peninsula.
“Understanding these storms and their future trends is essential, as it could allow for better management of water resources and improved preparation for flood events, both of which are critical concerns in this dry region,” the researchers said in the paper.
The increase in the number of stormy days varies with different carbon emissions scenarios, but Dr Francis said that any differences were “minimal”.
She cautioned that there was “some uncertainty” about the extent to which the number of stormy days would increase in the UAE, as more detailed models would be needed to give an accurate figure.
The other authors of the study were Dr Narendra Nelli and Dr Ricardo Fonseca of the Engeos Lab, Dr Luca Delle Monache of the University of California San Diego and Abdulla Al Mandous of the National Centre of Meteorology.
The severe flooding that affected Dubai, Sharjah and some other parts of the UAE hit on April 16 last year, with Al Ain receiving 254mm of rainfall in a single day – as much as it typically gets in two years. There were five deaths in the UAE and at least 20 in Oman.
Shortly after the deluge, the World Weather Attribution service said that climate change had made the rainstorms between 10 and 40 per cent more severe.
While the risk of extreme rainfall in the UAE is rising, the authorities are improving drainage systems to limit its effects following the 2024 floods.
Last year Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, approved the Dh30 billion Tasreef project, due to be finished in 2033, to improve the emirate’s drainage.
In June, Dubai Municipality announced that it had completed the scheme’s first part, a Dh277 million sewerage and rainwater drainage network in Nad Al Sheba.
A pumping station that can handle 4,000 litres of water per second and a 31km drainage pipeline were installed as part of the initiative.
