Palestinian support for armed struggle has dropped sharply in less than a year, with most now in favour of negotiations to end the Israeli occupation and achieve statehood, a new opinion poll shows.
The Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research conducted the survey across Gaza and the West Bank this month, after President Mahmoud Abbas announced presidential and legislative elections for 2027 to be held in November.
It also came after Hamas said it had positively dealt with a US-led Board of Peace plan for Gaza, which includes the group's disarmament, and after the intensification of deadly Israeli settler attacks in the occupied West Bank.
The centre, which has its headquarters in Ramallah, says it is an independent, non-profit polling and research think tank.
"Twenty-seven per cent of people chose armed struggle, compared with 41 per cent in October", when asked about the most effective way to establish an independent Palestinian state and end the Israeli occupation, the report said. "Forty-four per cent of people chose negotiations, compared to 36 per cent 10 months ago," it added.
Despite the decline in support for armed struggle as a concept, respondents were split regarding its effectiveness. Half said it had been effective, while the other half said it had contributed to destruction in Gaza and the West Bank.
Gaza has been devastated since Israel launched its war on the enclave after Hamas's October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel, which killed 1,200 people. The conflict has claimed the lives of more than 73,000 Gazans, with rights groups warning the figure could be even higher as the remains of thousands remain buried under rubble.
Public perception of the militant group has also changed.
“Confidence in Hamas's ability to represent Palestinians has also declined, from 41 per cent to 28 per cent” in the past 10 months, while more than 40 per cent say that neither Hamas nor its rival, Fatah, deserve to lead, the report said.
Perceptions of Mr Abbas are reflective of the disgruntlement with him and the Palestinian leadership, with 80 per cent wanting the President to resign. Mr Abbas's approval rating has plummeted to 18 per cent compared to 21 per cent ten months ago.
The most popular Palestinian political figure was imprisoned activist Marwan Barghouti, who is favoured by 39 per cent of the people polled as a successor to Mr Abbas.
Centre director Khalil Shikaki, who co-wrote the report, told The National that “Barghouti today has the majority of public support, as opposed to a plurality that we've seen in the past".
Mr Barghouti remains popular despite having been behind Israeli bars since 2002, with 54 per cent of the 1,270 Palestinians surveyed putting him ahead of Mr Abbas and Khalil Al Hayya, who was elected as Hamas's political leader last month.
Hamas has said it will take part in November's parliamentary election. The survey reflected people's scepticism, with just under half of respondents saying they believe the vote will be held on schedule and two-thirds believing that if it is held, it would not be free and fair.
The Palestinian Authority has been under increasing pressure to reform, both from its citizens and internationally, as more countries formally recognise the Palestinian state. Canada, the UK, France and Australia were among those to do so last year, bringing the total to more than 80 per cent of UN member states.
Mr Shikaki said the question of whether elections take place depends on the international community. “As long as the pressure that led Abbas to take this step continues, it will happen,” he added.
