Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has shown the ability to manage and maintain ties with Washington and Tehran, even at a time of growing hostility between the two foes, former US ambassador to Iraq and Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, told The National.
The US and Iran have economic, military and political interests in Iraq. About 2,000 American troops are still in the country, a remnant from the 2003 US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. These troops are set to leave Iraq by the end of September, though experts remain sceptical. In the meantime, they are continuing to advise the Iraqi army in the fight against ISIS.
Since 2003, Iran has consolidated its influence in the neighbouring country through economic ties, political parties and armed groups that Mr Al Zaidi has vowed to bring under state control.
Mr Khalilzad, who met Mr Al Zaidi during a recent trip to Washington, believes that new Prime Minister, who is the youngest in Iraq's history, has an advantage over his predecessors centred around his lack of “political baggage” and business approach.
“He is much younger, for one, more business-oriented and not inclined to [give] long speeches, but gets to the heart of the matter, expressing his views, goals and strategy succinctly, clearly and forcefully,” Mr Khalilzad said.
Mr Al Zaidi held talks US President Donald Trump at the White House last week, his first overseas meeting since taking on the role in May. Iraq held elections last November and Mr Trump repeatedly warned Baghdad against appointing an Iran-aligned figure such as former Nouri Al Maliki, who was prime minister from 2006 to 2014 and again from 2016 to 2018.
Mr Al Zaidi is set to visit Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey this week, an itinerary Mr Khalilzad says is a reflection of his desire to navigate the renewed escalation between Washington and Tehran.
“My impression from talking with him is that he would like to have relations between two sovereign countries when it comes to both Iran and the US,” Mr Khalilzad said, highlighting “a new phase” for the country. “Iraq has achieved maturity with his own political independence.”
Iraqi leaders have repeatedly sought to balance ties between Iran and the US since the fall of Saddam. The semi-autonomous Kurdistan region has typically enjoyed closer ties with Washington than Baghdad, with Erbil housing the largest US consulate in the world. But Baghdad is also financially reliant on the US, where its oil money is stored. Banks and politicians have been subjected to US sanctions due to money laundering and the siphoning of oil money to Iran.
Looming deadlines
Since taking office, Mr Al Zaidi has been cracking down on corruption – an endeavour some of his predecessors vowed to undertake but failed to deliver.
He ordered sweeping arrests made in predawn raids of high-level officials, leading to dramatic images of stacks of gold and cashed being retrieved. He also ordered a review of major deals signed by the previous government and the creation of a body to oversee high-value contracts. Cases of suspicion can be referred directly to the judiciary.
Still, Mr Khalilzad believes Mr Al Zaidi's anti-corruption policy could create a best-case scenario for Iraq, particularly ahead of the US withdrawal from the country set for September 30, which experts have warned could create a security vacuum.
Mr Al Zaidi has tied the date of the drawdown to that of disarming militant groups aligned with Iran. Iraq has come under intense pressure over the past few months to rein in groups that were behind numerous attacks on US assets – as well as Gulf states – since the Iran war broke out in February.
In an “optimistic scenario”, Mr Khalilzad said, Iraq could disarm militias, reintegrating them into the mainstream security apparatus and have the Iraqi armed forces take over. “If that programme and the corruption programme are successful and no security challenges emerge because of these efforts … then the issue of withdrawal may not create a challenge or vacuum that Iraq cannot fulfil or fill”.
With Iraq remaining relatively stable in a region where peace and war seem to be within hours of each other, even more so since the Iran war began five months ago, Iraq could play a key role in the region's future. The new government is keen to keep its allies happy while cleaning up the detritus from decades of mismanagement and poor governance.
An adviser to Mr Al Zaidi has said Iraq could be a door to the West for Iran, while reports suggest Mr Al Zaidi has offered to play a mediating role between the US and Iran.
Iraq could reap great rewards. “We should understand that it’s a sovereign country and can’t change its geography,” Mr Khalilzad said, referring to Iraq's shared border with Iran. “We don’t want an Iraq that’s subservient to a country that we regard as a problem or threat, that we’re at war with on and off … but we understand a relationship between two nations that share a geography is needed.”
Iran will decide whether it will allow Mr Al Zaidi to carry out his duties, or undermine Iraqi sovereignty through disruption and intervention, Mr Khalilzad added.
For years, Iraq has maintained a neutral stance while balancing ties between Washington and Tehran. The war in the region has exposed the fragility of Iraq’s state institutions and their limited ability to restrain these groups.
