US President Donald Trump's proposal for Syria to take over the fight against Hezbollah from Israel is "preposterous", a former American ambassador to Lebanon has told The National.
"It's a preposterous idea but it's not just a throwaway line. It's clear that he's thought about this or was told about this because he repeated it," said Jeffrey Feltman, who was stationed in Beirut from 2004 to 2008.
The veteran diplomat said the idea probably comes from Mr Trump's unfamiliarity with the logistical and historic complications of Syria's involvement in Lebanon. "I think the proposal reflects real ignorance," Mr Feltman said.
He said the suggestion also places Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara, who has previously won strong backing from Mr Trump, in an awkward position. "It makes an uncomfortable relationship with Washington at a time when Trump threw his weight behind Shara. It's awkward for Shara but I don’t think he would fall into what would be a trap."
Mr Feltman wondered where the idea may have come from: "Was it something that the Israelis suggested as a test for Shara? I don't know."
Any Syrian intervention would face practical challenges. Israel showed its ability to penetrate Hezbollah with the 2024 pager attacks, in which dozens of people were killed by exploding devices, but has not been able to tame the group entirely.
"If the Israelis with their superior intelligence ... and overwhelming military force cannot eliminate Hezbollah militarily, why would Syria be able to do that?" Mr Feltman asked.
There is also a historical dimension, as any military return to Lebanon would also evoke memories of Syria's occupation of the country between 1976 and 2005. There are also religious tensions that may be reignited by such a move, particularly with Syria now a Sunni-dominated state that would be fighting against Hezbollah, a primarily Shiite militant group.
Mr Trump's suggestions followed critical remarks about Israel's behaviour in Lebanon and its devastation of the south of the country, at a time when he was pursuing a deal with Iran. The Iranian leadership had said Lebanon was an integral part of any deal.
At the G7 summit in France last month, Mr Trump said "too many people" have been killed by Israel's campaign in Lebanon.
"You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they're not all Hezbollah," he said at the time.
Israel was not part of the interim agreement signed between Iran and the US on June 17, but a separate three-way agreement was reached between Israel, Lebanon and the US.
Trump's attention span
Mr Feltman said US and Israeli politics could affect the next stages of the peace process, with Iran potentially able to "insert some tension" between the allies by using its influence on Hezbollah.
"The whole success or failure of implementation of the trilateral framework depends on US support and attention that the US is not very good at," he said. "The US in the best of times loses interest and attention, and Trump has a notoriously short attention span."
Mr Feltman also spoke of coming Israeli elections, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not only running, but is also highlighting regional threats by Iran to win support. This makes it less likely for Israel to withdraw from areas it occupies in Lebanon, Mr Feltman said.
"Netanyahu wants to be re-elected for a number of reasons, including his court cases. I don’t see him being eager to redeploy out of Lebanon in an election season when the Israeli public is with the fighting of Hezbollah."
The framework does not mention Israeli "withdrawal" from the south of Lebanon but does refer to "eventual redeployment" of Israeli forces contingent on the dismantling and disarmament of Hezbollah. For the moment, there is a fragile status quo.
"There seems to be an implicit understanding that as long as Israel doesn’t hit Beirut, Hezbollah isn’t hitting northern Israel and vice versa. But there is no implicit understanding about what happens in the part of Lebanon that Israel is occupying," Mr Feltman said.
