Details of a landmark deal expected to be signed by the US and Iran on Friday are emerging, revealing a framework that would rapidly unlock Iranian oil exports, channel funds into its economy and begin a phased rollback of sanctions in exchange for nuclear curbs.
The two foes are expected to sign the memorandum of understanding at Switzerland's Burgenstock resort, paving the way for a 60-day negotiating process and raising hopes of a lasting end to a conflict that has killed thousands, spread across the Middle East and disrupted global energy markets. The US would be represented by Vice President JD Vance and Iran by its top negotiator, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf.
Under the terms of the draft memorandum, Iran would be allowed to resume oil and petrochemical exports immediately through US waivers while frozen Iranian assets would be released gradually as part of a phased sanctions relief process. The US would also end its blockade of Iran's ports, and Iran would restore Strait of Hormuz passage from Friday.
The agreement also envisions a $300 billion investment fund designed to anchor long-term economic engagement with Iran after decades of international isolation, Bloomberg reported. More than half of the proposed financing has already been committed by investors across the US, Gulf states and Asia, Reuters reported. The fund is contingent on Iran meeting further conditions.
Markets are already positioning for change. At least 23 very large crude carriers are heading towards UAE ports including Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, joining around 30 tankers already at anchorage, as shipowners prepare for the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, said maritime intelligence firm Windward. More than 550 vessels remain stranded west of the strait, including dozens carrying full loads. Shipping companies, however, are waiting to see if the peace holds before committing to full operations.
US President Donald Trump has signalled confidence the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened by Friday. "The strait is going to be open toll-free," he told reporters at a G7 summit in Evian, France on Tuesday, adding that oil flows were already increasing. Iranian state TV said blockade-lifting operations were under way, though it noted vessels must still co-ordinate with the Revolutionary Guards. Iran has also suggested it would charge ships for "services" and retain joint control of the strait with Oman on a long-term basis.
Mr Trump has also said the memorandum makes clear that Iran will not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon, and suggested the US intends to destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile rather than retrieve it. But Iran's ballistic missile programme and its support for proxies such as Hezbollah are not on the negotiating agenda – a significant gap given these were among the stated justifications for the war. Iran's theocratic government also remains in place, another original US war aim that has gone unfulfilled.
Sixty-day window
The US President faces Republican criticism ahead of the November midterms. He has said he is open to sending the agreement to Congress for review.
One of the most sensitive unresolved issues is Lebanon, where Israeli military activity continues despite ceasefire expectations tied to the broader US-Iran understanding. Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least four people on Tuesday, authorities in Lebanon said.
Israel did not take part in the negotiations and has distanced itself from the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel is not bound by the agreement and will not withdraw from southern Lebanon – contradicting Vice President Vance, who said the deal covers Israel and Lebanon.
Iranian officials have repeatedly signalled that Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon is a core condition of the wider arrangement. A source within Hezbollah told The National on Tuesday that Iran had informed the Lebanese militant group that an Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanon was included in the US-Iran deal and would unfold over the phased 60-day period.
Mr Trump has publicly criticised recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon, saying he "didn't like" attacks carried out close to the announcement of the agreement – a tension that complicates Washington's position given its long-standing alliance with Israel.
"I've had a great relationship with Bibi [Mr Netanyahu], but now Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon," the US President told reporters on Tuesday.
"You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they're not all Hezbollah, that I can tell you."
The signing ceremony will take place at the Burgenstock resort overlooking Lake Lucerne, a secluded Alpine venue confirmed by Switzerland's foreign ministry following consultations with the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar. The location has hosted previous high-stakes diplomatic efforts, including Ukraine peace talks, though outcomes there have historically been mixed.
The 60-day window following signing will be decisive – not only for resolving nuclear and economic disputes, but for addressing entrenched regional conflicts. Iran's leaders also face domestic pressure, as renewed protests could follow if the promised economic relief fails to materialise.
