Details of a framework agreement expected to be signed by the US and Iran on Friday are emerging, revealing a road map that would unlock Iranian oil exports, channel funds into its economy and begin a phased rollback of sanctions in exchange for nuclear curbs.
The two foes are expected to sign the memorandum of understanding at Switzerland's Burgenstock resort, paving the way for a 60-day negotiating process and raising hopes of a lasting end to a conflict that has killed thousands, spread across the Middle East and disrupted global energy markets. The US would be represented by Vice President JD Vance and Iran by its top negotiator, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Under the terms of the draft memorandum, Iran would be allowed to resume oil and petrochemical exports immediately through US waivers while frozen Iranian assets would be released gradually as part of a phased sanctions relief process. The US would also end its blockade of Iran's ports, and Tehran would restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz from Friday.
The agreement also envisions a $300 billion investment fund designed to anchor long-term economic engagement with Iran after decades of international isolation, Bloomberg reported. More than half of the proposed financing had already been committed by investors across the US, Gulf states and Asia, Reuters reported.
President Donald Trump rejected suggestions that the US would contribute to the fund, but said other parties were welcome to. “You can invest if you want [but] ... we’re not putting up 10 cents,” he said, without clarifying whether he was referring to government financing, private capital or both.
Speaking alongside Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on the sidelines of the G7 summit, Mr Trump also warned the US could resume strikes on Iran if it failed to comply with the deal.
“If I don’t like it, if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head,” he said.
Iran's Tasnim news agency, citing an informed source, said the text of the MoU would not be published until after Friday's ceremony. Markets are already positioning for change, however.
At least 23 very large crude carriers are heading towards UAE ports including Khor Fakkan and Fujairah, joining around 30 tankers already at anchorage, as shipowners prepare for the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, said maritime intelligence firm Windward. More than 550 vessels remain stranded west of the strait, including dozens carrying full loads. Shipping companies, however, are waiting to see if the peace holds before committing to full operations.
Mr Trump has indicated that he is confident the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened by Friday. Iranian state TV said blockade-lifting operations were under way, while noting ships must still co-ordinate with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran has also suggested it would charge ships for “services” and retain joint control of the strait with Oman on a long-term basis.
Mr Trump has said the memorandum makes clear that Iran will not be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon, and suggested the US intends to destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile rather than retrieve it. But Iran's ballistic missile programme and its support for proxies such as Hezbollah are not on the negotiating agenda – a significant gap given these were among the stated justifications for the war. Iran's theocratic government also remains in place, another original US war aim that has gone unfulfilled.
Sixty-day window
One of the most sensitive unresolved issues is Lebanon, where Israeli military activity continues despite ceasefire expectations tied to the broader US-Iran understanding. Israeli warplanes carried out strikes on Nabatieh Al Fawqa and neighbouring Kfar Tebnit in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, the National News Agency reported.
Israel did not take part in the negotiations and has distanced itself from the agreement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel is not bound by the agreement and will not withdraw from southern Lebanon – a key sticking point, with Iran repeatedly identifying an Israeli withdrawal as a core condition of the wider arrangement and a red line in the talks.
A source within Hezbollah told The National on Tuesday that Iran had informed the Lebanese militant group that an Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanon was included in the US-Iran agreement and would unfold over the phased 60-day period.
The dispute has been sharpened by Mr Trump's increasingly public criticism of Israel's military campaign in Lebanon, despite Washington's long-standing alliance with the country. The US President said he “didn't like” recent Israeli strikes carried out close to the announcement of the agreement.
“I've had a great relationship with Bibi [Mr Netanyahu], but now Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon,” he said on Tuesday. “You don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody, because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses, and they're not all Hezbollah, that I can tell you.”
The signing ceremony will take place at the Burgenstock resort overlooking Lake Lucerne, a secluded Alpine venue confirmed by Switzerland's Foreign Ministry after consultations with the US, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar. The location has hosted previous high-stakes diplomatic efforts, including Ukraine peace talks, though outcomes there have historically been mixed.
The 60-day window following signing will be decisive – not only for resolving nuclear and economic disputes, but for addressing entrenched regional conflicts.
