Israel’s assassination of Hamas's military commander in Gaza last week has compounded the group’s woes, with layers of its leadership now eliminated, its military capabilities significantly diminished, and infighting threatening its unity.
Moreover, according to sources with direct knowledge of Hamas's inner workings, Israeli-backed militias in Gaza are posing a growing threat to the group, which had been the target of relentless Israeli strikes for two years before a US-sponsored ceasefire took effect in the territory in October.
Israel said it had killed Izz Al Haddad – Hamas’s leader in Gaza and its military chief – in a strike on Gaza city on May 16. He was replaced as leader of the Al Qassam Brigades three days later by Mohammed Awda, head of the military wing's intelligence, according to the sources.
There has been no official announcement by Hamas of the appointment.
Mr Al Haddad's assassination was the latest in a series that has cut down Hamas's military and political leadership since October 7, 2023 when the group attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage.
Mr Awda belongs to what the sources called the group's “middle generation” – operatives in their late 40s and early 50s. They include Haitham Al Hawagry, commander of the region west of Gaza city, as well as Mohannad Ragab, who is in charge of Gaza city, and Tawfeek Abu Naeem, who runs the group's security.
“Leaders of the first, second and third layers of Hamas's military wing have been wiped out. The spiritual and historical leaders are also gone, robbing the younger generations of fighters of their role models and the guidance they offered,” said one of the sources.
“Hamas fighters have now formed autonomous cells with little or no control from the leadership, which is very dangerous and likely to complicate the group's disarmament under President Donald Trump's Gaza plan.”
Separately, feuding between two Hamas leadership factions – one led by its chief negotiator Khalil Al Hayyah and the other by former political bureau leader Khaled Meshaal – has resurfaced after Mr Al Hayyah was voted head of the political bureau in a secret ballot, according to the sources.
They said the faction led by Mr Meshaal has questioned the result of voting in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, where Mr Al Hayyah has lived. The dispute has delayed the announcement of the vote’s result, which had been scheduled last week, said the sources.
However, a Hamas official gave The National a different account of what happened in the election.
“Neither of the candidates received 51 per cent of the votes. Therefore, a run-off vote will be held. Whoever wins that will be the one who receives the highest number of votes – not necessarily 51 per cent,” he said.
He said he could not reveal the date of the next round of voting, quoting what he called the “security situation”. He said the voting will take place inside Palestinian territories as well as in the diaspora.
The secret ballot was held to replace the members and leader of Hamas's 19-member political bureau who were killed by Israel since October 2023.
“Before the first round of voting, everything appeared to be heading towards the selection of Meshal. But two days earlier, Khalil Al Hayya’s son was assassinated in Gaza, which completely changed the equation,” the official said.
“Expectations grew that Al Hayya would win, and the matter has still not been decided. It is no secret that there are differences in the visions of Meshal and Al Hayya, and in what each politically represents. This is natural and well known. That is why the elections are a competition between ideas, plans and visions.
“The selection of Al Hayya could mean that Iran has a strong presence in the Palestinian file and the jihadist arena. The selection of Meshal means that Qatar has the final say, particularly in the Gaza arena and in the movement’s direction. Choosing Meshal would also mean greater pragmatism in dealing with the post-October 7 phase, and with issues related to Gaza’s future, governance and reconstruction of the strip.”
A source close to Hamas, in the meantime, sought to frame the rivalry as a healthy competition between two schools of thought and allegiances.
“It is no secret that there are differences of visions between Meshal and Al Hayya and in what each politically represents,” said the source.
“The election of Al Hayya could mean Iran will keep its strong presence in the Palestinian file and the jihadist arena. The election of Meshal, on the other hand, will mean Qatar has the final say, particularly in Gaza.”
Despite its troubles, Hamas is consolidating its grip on Gaza and preventing reconstruction in areas it still controls, according to Nickolay Mladenov, the Bulgarian diplomat responsible for putting the US-backed Gaza peace plan into action.
Israel's devastating response to the October 2023 attack has killed not only Hamas members but also tens of thousands of civilians, displaced hundreds of thousands more and created a humanitarian crisis.
Besides the ceasefire and the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for thousands of Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons, the plan saw Israel's military pull back behind a yellow line that leaves it in control of more than half of Gaza.
The plan also envisages the disarmament of Hamas, but the group wants to surrender only heavy weapons while retaining personal firearms, which it sees as necessary to defend itself against the Israeli-backed militias.
Israel said it wants Hamas fully disarmed and insists that a UN-sanctioned committee of non-partisan Palestinian technocrats meant to run Gaza's day-to-day affairs cannot enter the coastal enclave before that.
The impasse leaves Mr Trump's plan in limbo as his administration continues to be preoccupied with the Iran war and its fallout, chiefly Tehran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf.
Mr Mladenov, who met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week, said disarming Hamas was proving particularly difficult – but did not rule out the Palestinian militant group assuming a political role if it laid down its weapons.
The comments by Mr Mladenov, the senior envoy of the Board of Peace overseeing the Gaza ceasefire, came amid an increase in Israeli bombardment of the strip.
“We have a ceasefire. It is holding. It is not perfect. It is far from perfect,” Mr Mladenov told a news conference in Jerusalem. “Seven months since the ceasefire, the door to the future of Gaza is still closed.”
