Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to extend Kyiv’s newly acquired clout in the Middle East during a visit to Syria, a strategically important country with a nascent military and a newfound alliance with the US that has replaced decades in the orbits of Russia and Iran.
Damascus appears to be a ripe market for Ukraine’s drone technology, while Ukrainian grain could compensate for the unreliability of Syrian production. However, the pomp and ceremony Mr Zelenskyy was met with at the Presidential Palace in Damascus on Sunday masks difficulties in transforming Ukraine into a significant player in Syria.
To reach Damascus, Mr Zelenskyy sought the help of Turkey, the main regional backer of President Ahmad Al Shara, Syrian sources said. Ankara's interests in Syria have collided with both Israel and the US. Shortly after Mr Zelenskyy and Mr Al Shara met in Damascus, the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan joined them.
“Turkey will make sure that any co-operation between Ukraine and Syria does not go too far because it does not want to anger Russia," one of the sources said, adding that Moscow has been strengthened by higher oil prices since the start of the Iran war, which could contribute to more battlefield gains over Ukraine in their continuing war.
Kyiv might be buoyed by rising demand for its weapons technology, but Turkey realises that Ukraine's position may have been weakened by the Iran war, the source said.
The lack of a decisive US victory in the Iran war has also made Turkey careful about antagonising Tehran. The source said Ankara would not want any military technology Syria might acquire to be used to shoot down Iranian drones as they fly over southern Syria and to the west of Damascus on their way to Israel.
Damascus has become friendly to Washington since Mr Al Shara led Sunni insurgents who toppled the Assad regime in December 2024. However, Mr Al Shara has kept open Russian bases in the country and sought to expand commercial ties with Iraq, whose Iran-backed Shiite militias fought on the side of the former regime in the 2011-2024 Syrian civil war.
Support from Iran and Russia enabled Mr Al Assad to regain control of large parts of Syria in the initial phases of the civil war, before Russia's focus on the Ukraine war and Israeli military blows against Iran and Hezbollah made his position untenable. Before he was deposed, Mr Al Assad ridiculed Mr Zelenskyy and repeated Moscow's view of the invasion as a "special military operation" needed to preserve the security of Russia.
However, others believe that an expanded role for Ukraine in Syria could benefit Turkey. Curbing Russia's already diminished influence in the country adds to a re-balancing of relations between Moscow and Ankara in the latter's favour, which began with the invasion of Ukraine and gathered pace with the toppling of Mr Al Assad.
"Turkey is building on that momentum without really openly alienating [Russian President Vladimir] Putin," said Gonul Tol, director of the Washington-based Middle East Institute's Turkey programme.
Mr Al Shara is carefully managing Turkey's role in the country, including its role in facilitating talks with Ukraine. He is "too smart" to allow Ankara to dominate Damascus's decision-making, Ms Tol added. "This optics of 'Shara is under [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan's thumb' is going to undermine what he wants to do and that's why he is careful."
Riccardo Gasco, foreign policy programme co-ordinator at the IstanPol think tank, said a weapons deal between Ukraine and Syria appears inevitable.
"Turkey is the indispensable broker," Mr Gasco said. He added that Turkey needs Ukraine as a drone partner, a grain supplier, and a geopolitical counterweight to Russia.
"Ukraine needs Turkey’s access to post-Assad Syria and its credibility as a mediator. The trilateral format lets Ankara claim authorship of a new regional architecture while keeping Kyiv embedded in a structure Turkey controls."
A Syrian official confirmed that Ukrainian weapons technology was a central topic of the meeting between Mr Al Shara, Mr Zelensky and Mr Fidan. "A draw of Ukrainian technology is that it is cheap,” the official said, without elaborating.
Ukrainian drone and anti-drone technology manufacturers want to export their products but are a bit limited by Ukrainian government restrictions on the export of military equipment and systems, according to Fatih Ceylan, a former Turkish ambassador to Nato. They are looking for joint ventures abroad "to overcome such limitations", he said. Those firms, including start-ups, "need to export such weapons" to remain functioning, he said.
Mr Zelenskyy said after his meetings in Damascus that Ukraine is expanding its “efforts to ensure security”, pointing out that his country was “among the first to support a new Syria after the fall of the Assad regime”.
Last week Mr Zelenskyy toured Arab allies of the US who have been under attack by Iran, offering his country's experience in countering Iranian drones in the war with Russia. After meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, Mr Zelenskyy on Friday announced a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Russia has not publicly commented on Mr Zelenskyy touring the Middle East and promoting Ukraine as a partner, first in the Gulf and now in Syria. But the moves irk Moscow, Hanna Notte, Eurasia director at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, told The National.
Russia, Ms Notte said, "is not really in a position to criticise these countries for speaking with the Ukrainians", because it has had to "engage with Al Shara's government to preserve its own ties”.
