Three days into the US and Israel’s war with Iran, Jerusalem, arguably the heart of the Israel-Palestine conflict, appears to be in the crosshairs more than at any point since the attacks of October 7, 2023.
The city has witnessed a great deal of fighting since the State of Israel was founded in 1948. There have been boots-on-the-ground military campaigns, major uprisings, suicide bombings and crackdowns, a reflection of its unparalleled importance for Jews, Muslims and Christians, all of whom call Jerusalem home.
For Israelis, the city is their eternal capital, from which Jews must never again be expelled. For Palestinians, the east of the city is supposed to be the future capital of their own state, and for Muslims it is home to Al Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam.
When the Gaza war broke out there were fears Jerusalem might enter another cycle of violence. Life did change, tourists and pilgrims fled and Israeli authorities put in place heavy restrictions on political expression and protest, often labelling such action as incitement.
The worst-case scenario did not come to pass but Sunday and Monday’s events could change any impression of stability.
Residents of the city were shocked by a particularly loud boom late on Sunday evening. Crashes from interceptions are common but this one felt different, and fears were soon confirmed by reports that a missile had slammed into a suburb of the city, injuring several people. Images of destruction on the road the missile hit, a massive crater and a mangled car, shocked Israelis and Palestinians alike.
On Monday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) upped the ante, saying it had targeted the West Jerusalem offices of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a major change to the regime’s approach, it also warned Palestinians in East Jerusalem “to stay away from military bases, security and government centres and to leave the occupied territories immediately”, saying an attack on the majority-Palestinian east of the city was a military goal.
Such a target was considered by many to be beyond the pale for the IRGC, because of the risk of hitting Palestinians for whom the Iranians say they are fighting this war, at least in part.
Iran expert Sima Shine told The National that Iran’s shifting approach to Jerusalem “is a very important question”.
“Everything that the Iranians are doing is to put pressure on everyone to make sure that they [Iran] survive this war,” she said. “I am asking myself whether the statements on Jerusalem are to put pressure on the Sunni Muslim world.
“It could be something that provokes not only regional countries but ones further away that are concerned with Al Aqsa. Everyone is a target now, this is the message coming out of Iran. We are fighting for our survival and everything is legitimate.”
Whatever is the shifting outlook for the city, many residents still feel the biggest difficulty is the economy, particularly for the many Palestinians who work in the tourism industry, which has been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and the many escalations since.
Tourists were starting to return to the streets before the latest round of fighting. Ramadan was picking up and preparations for Easter, another key religious season, were under way.
That progress has been halted and the streets of the Old City, are again empty.
Palestinian businessman Gabi Hani, who owns a restaurant that caters to Christian visitors and local residents, was coming to terms with a wave of cancellations that he told The National would cost his business about $10,000.
He did not have much time to dwell on the loss, frantically trying to make arrangements for a French tour group trapped by the war. From the calm gardens of the Austrian Hospice, where the group is now staying, Mr Hani was milling around making sure his guests were happy with the packed lunches he had prepared for them at short notice.
“It's good weather today,” he said. “They will eat on the rooftop of the hotel and enjoy the amazing view. So this group worked out, but I feel sorry for myself and the other business owners going forward, who just started to see groups again.”
